(POST) Post Holdings - Overview
Stock: Cereal, Peanut Butter, Pet Food, Egg Products, Side Dishes
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.64% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.28 |
| Alpha | 3.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.181 |
| Beta Downside | 0.055 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.48% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.38 |
Description: POST Post Holdings January 08, 2026
Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST) is a diversified consumer packaged-goods holding company that operates four primary segments-Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail-selling a mix of branded and private-label products ranging from ready-to-eat cereals and peanut butter to pet food, egg products, and refrigerated side dishes.
The Post Consumer Brands segment drives the majority of revenue, featuring flagship cereals such as Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Malt-O-Meal, plus Peter Pan peanut butter and pet-food lines like Rachael Ray Nutrish and 9 Lives. The Weetabix segment adds international exposure with Weetabix, Alpen, and the UFIT protein-shake portfolio.
Foodservice focuses on egg and potato products for institutional and food-ingredient channels, while Refrigerated Retail supplies Bob Evans side dishes, egg-white products, and Crystal Farms dairy items to grocery, mass-merchant, and food-service customers.
In FY 2023 the company generated approximately **$3.6 billion** in net sales, with a **5 % YoY organic growth** in the core cereal business and a **7 % YoY increase** in pet-food sales, reflecting continued consumer demand for convenient, protein-rich, and premium pet products.
Key economic drivers include **inflation-linked commodity costs** (especially grains and dairy), **shifts toward private-label purchasing** in price-sensitive channels, and the **long-term growth trend in pet-food spend**, which has outpaced overall CPI for the past five years.
From a sector perspective, the packaged-foods & meats industry is experiencing **margin pressure from rising input prices**, but also benefits from **stable demand for shelf-stable and ready-to-eat categories**, which tend to be less price-elastic than fresh foods.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of POST’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven snapshot worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 319.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.16% < 20% (prev 17.23%; Δ -6.07% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 923.6m > Net Income 319.1m |
| Net Debt (7.18b) to EBITDA (1.22b): 5.89 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.2m) vs 12m ago -10.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.84% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2656 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.78% > 50% (prev 61.87%; Δ 2.91% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.51 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.22b / Interest Expense TTM 380.7m) |
Altman Z'' 1.57
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.97b - Total Current Liabilities 1.04b) / Total Assets 12.98b |
| B: 0.17 (Retained Earnings 2.22b / Total Assets 12.98b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 575.9m / Avg Total Assets 12.90b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 2.23b / Total Liabilities 9.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.57 = BB |
Beneish M -2.96
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 680.6m/608.4m, Revenue 8.36b/7.93b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 26.84% / 27.34%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 8.36b / 7.93b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 319.1m - CFO 923.6m) / TA 12.98b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of POST shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.15%, over one month by +16.44%, over three months by +8.71% and over the past year by +4.37%.
Is POST a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the POST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 126.6 | 10.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 126.6 | 10.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 119.3 | 4% |
POST Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 28.7356
P/S = 0.7152
P/B = 1.5898
P/EG = 1.1893
Revenue TTM = 8.36b USD
EBIT TTM = 575.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.22b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.46b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.20m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.46b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.18b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.16b USD (5.98b + Debt 7.46b - CCE 279.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.51 (Ebit TTM 575.9m / Interest Expense TTM 380.7m)
EV/FCF = 23.82x (Enterprise Value 13.16b / FCF TTM 552.4m)
FCF Yield = 4.20% (FCF TTM 552.4m / Enterprise Value 13.16b)
FCF Margin = 6.61% (FCF TTM 552.4m / Revenue TTM 8.36b)
Net Margin = 3.82% (Net Income TTM 319.1m / Revenue TTM 8.36b)
Gross Margin = 26.84% ((Revenue TTM 8.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.36% (prev 24.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 13.16b / Total Assets 12.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.39% (Interest Expense 103.4m / Debt 7.46b)
Taxrate = 22.02% (27.3m / 124.0m)
NOPAT = 449.1m (EBIT 575.9m * (1 - 22.02%))
Current Ratio = 1.90 (Total Current Assets 1.97b / Total Current Liabilities 1.04b)
Debt / Equity = 2.16 (Debt 7.46b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.46b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.89 (Net Debt 7.18b / EBITDA 1.22b)
Debt / FCF = 13.00 (Net Debt 7.18b / FCF TTM 552.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.47% (Net Income 319.1m / Total Assets 12.98b)
RoE = 8.49% (Net Income TTM 319.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.76b)
RoCE = 5.13% (EBIT 575.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.76b + L.T.Debt 7.46b))
RoIC = 4.06% (NOPAT 449.1m / Invested Capital 11.05b)
WACC = 3.53% (E(5.98b)/V(13.44b) * Re(6.58%) + D(7.46b)/V(13.44b) * Rd(1.39%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -7.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.44% ; FCFF base≈563.4m ; Y1≈634.8m ; Y5≈853.3m
Fair Price DCF = 374.3 (EV 25.13b - Net Debt 7.18b = Equity 17.95b / Shares 48.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.73% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 79.55 | EPS CAGR: 79.00% | SUE: 3.59 | # QB: 13
Revenue Correlation: 91.40 | Revenue CAGR: 12.25% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.76 | Chg30d=+0.032 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.35 | Chg30d=+0.416 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+1.7% | Growth Revenue=+2.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.38 | Chg30d=+0.118 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+14.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.7%