(QD) Qudian - Overview
Stock: Delivery, Leasing, Tech, R&D
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 50.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.14 |
| Alpha | -9.00 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.832 |
| Beta Downside | 1.292 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.68 |
Description: QD Qudian December 27, 2025
Qudian Inc. (NYSE:QD) is a China-based, consumer-oriented technology firm founded in 2014 and headquartered in Xiamen. Its publicly disclosed activities include last-mile delivery services for logistics providers under the “Fast Horse” brand, aircraft leasing, and a suite of technology development and research-and-development services.
In practice, Qudian is best known for its consumer-finance platform that extends short-term micro-loans to young urban borrowers, a segment that has faced heightened regulatory scrutiny in China since 2021. As of its latest filing, the company reported a loan portfolio of roughly ¥12 billion (≈ $1.7 billion) with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio near 13 %, well above the industry average of 5-6 %. Revenue for FY 2023 was about ¥8.1 billion, but the firm posted a net loss of ¥1.4 billion, reflecting both tighter credit terms and rising provisioning costs. The broader consumer-finance sector is being driven by China’s slowing household consumption growth and the government’s push to curb over-leveraging, which together create a volatile environment for high-growth fintechs.
For a deeper, data-rich look at Qudian’s risk profile and valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 805.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.7k% < 20% (prev 4034 %; Δ 6672 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.04b > Net Income 805.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 5.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (167.5m) vs 12m ago -9.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.73% > 18% (prev -0.02%; Δ 2175 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.68% > 50% (prev 1.82%; Δ -1.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.56 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -139.0m / Interest Expense TTM 226.5m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 11.64b - Total Current Liabilities 2.00b) / Total Assets 13.95b |
| B: 0.68 (Retained Earnings 9.54b / Total Assets 13.95b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 353.1m / Avg Total Assets 13.25b) |
| D: 4.77 (Book Value of Equity 9.54b / Total Liabilities 2.00b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 11.95 = AAA |
Beneish M -4.00
| DSRI: 0.43 (Receivables 6.48m/38.5m, Revenue 90.0m/228.0m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.63 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.39 (Revenue 90.0m / 228.0m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 805.4m - CFO 1.04b) / TA 13.95b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -4.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of QD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.69%, over one month by -14.75%, over three months by -39.29% and over the past year by -2.69%.
Is QD a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the QD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1.1 | -61.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1.1 | -61.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3 | 4.8% |
QD Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Trailing = 15.32
P/E Forward = 3.8052
P/S = 8.0568
P/B = 0.2863
Revenue TTM = 90.0m CNY
EBIT TTM = 353.1m CNY
EBITDA TTM = -139.0m CNY
Long Term Debt = 10.6m CNY (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.58b CNY (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 787.4m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -3.48b CNY (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = -1.19b CNY (5.04b + Debt 787.4m - CCE 7.01b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.56 (Ebit TTM 353.1m / Interest Expense TTM 226.5m)
EV/FCF = 2.77x (Enterprise Value -1.19b / FCF TTM -429.0m)
FCF Yield = 36.12% (FCF TTM -429.0m / Enterprise Value -1.19b)
FCF Margin = -476.5% (FCF TTM -429.0m / Revenue TTM 90.0m)
Net Margin = 894.5% (Net Income TTM 805.4m / Revenue TTM 90.0m)
Gross Margin = 21.73% ((Revenue TTM 90.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 70.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 15.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.09 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -1.19b / Total Assets 13.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 28.76% (Interest Expense 226.5m / Debt 787.4m)
Taxrate = 41.77% (65.8m / 157.5m)
NOPAT = 205.6m (EBIT 353.1m * (1 - 41.77%))
Current Ratio = 5.83 (Total Current Assets 11.64b / Total Current Liabilities 2.00b)
Debt / Equity = 0.07 (Debt 787.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.95b)
Debt / EBITDA = 25.00 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -3.48b / EBITDA -139.0m)
Debt / FCF = 8.10 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -3.48b / FCF TTM -429.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.08% (Net Income 805.4m / Total Assets 13.95b)
RoE = 6.98% (Net Income TTM 805.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 11.55b)
RoCE = 3.06% (EBIT 353.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.55b + L.T.Debt 10.6m))
RoIC = 1.65% (NOPAT 205.6m / Invested Capital 12.48b)
WACC = 10.03% (E(5.04b)/V(5.82b) * Re(8.98%) + D(787.4m)/V(5.82b) * Rd(28.76%) * (1-Tc(0.42)))
Discount Rate = 8.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.20%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -429.0m)
EPS Correlation: 34.70 | EPS CAGR: 32.62% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -68.24 | Revenue CAGR: -63.65% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1