(RDW) Redwire - Overview
Stock: Avionics, Sensors, Solar Arrays, Deployable Structures, Software Suite
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 153% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.83% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.12 |
| Alpha | -93.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.800 |
| Beta Downside | 2.273 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 80.28% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.72 |
Description: RDW Redwire January 11, 2026
Redwire Corp (NYSE:RDW) delivers end-to-end space-infrastructure solutions to U.S. and international government and commercial customers, ranging from avionics and navigation sensors to deployable structural components and cloud-based digital-engineering software.
Its hardware suite includes star trackers, sun sensors, high-resolution camera systems, infrared payloads, solar-array modules, and a variety of deployable booms and truss structures that enable precise placement of sensors or power assets on a spacecraft. The company also offers microgravity payloads, RF systems, antennas, complete spacecraft platforms, in-space manufacturing and biotech facilities, and proven uncrewed airborne system (UAS) technology.
Key sector drivers include the rapid expansion of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) constellations-projected to reach >12,000 satellites by 2030-and sustained U.S. defense spending on space situational awareness, which together underpin a multi-billion-dollar market for modular, scalable space hardware. Redwire reported FY2024 revenue of $210 million, a 22% YoY increase, and a backlog of roughly $350 million, indicating strong demand pipelines; however, the company’s earnings visibility remains sensitive to launch cadence and government contract timing.
For a deeper dive into Redwire’s valuation metrics and how they compare to peers, you might find the analysis on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income: -208.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.78 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 20.62% < 20% (prev -1.50%; Δ 22.12% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.10 > 3% & CFO -146.0m > Net Income -208.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (102.5m) vs 12m ago 54.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 3.85% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 368.3% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 34.11% > 50% (prev 102.8%; Δ -68.67% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.43 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -105.7m / Interest Expense TTM 37.6m) |
Altman Z'' -3.00
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 210.6m - Total Current Liabilities 149.6m) / Total Assets 1.45b |
| B: -0.37 (Retained Earnings -536.3m / Total Assets 1.45b) |
| C: -0.15 (EBIT TTM -129.0m / Avg Total Assets 868.1m) |
| D: -1.01 (Book Value of Equity -525.3m / Total Liabilities 518.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.00 = D |
Beneish M 0.59
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 82.9m/69.4m, Revenue 296.1m/298.0m) |
| GMI: 4.40 (GM 3.85% / 16.97%) |
| AQI: 1.70 (AQ_t 0.80 / AQ_t-1 0.47) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 296.1m / 298.0m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -208.2m - CFO -146.0m) / TA 1.45b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 0.59 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of RDW shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.55%, over one month by -5.64%, over three months by +67.89% and over the past year by -53.82%.
Is RDW a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the RDW price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.1 | 30.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.1 | 30.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10.2 | 1.4% |
RDW Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 2.2796
Revenue TTM = 296.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -129.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -105.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 184.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 333.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 279.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.22b USD (1.94b + Debt 333.7m - CCE 54.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.43 (Ebit TTM -129.0m / Interest Expense TTM 37.6m)
EV/FCF = -13.68x (Enterprise Value 2.22b / FCF TTM -162.3m)
FCF Yield = -7.31% (FCF TTM -162.3m / Enterprise Value 2.22b)
FCF Margin = -54.81% (FCF TTM -162.3m / Revenue TTM 296.1m)
Net Margin = -70.32% (Net Income TTM -208.2m / Revenue TTM 296.1m)
Gross Margin = 3.85% ((Revenue TTM 296.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 284.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.25% (prev -30.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.53 (Enterprise Value 2.22b / Total Assets 1.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.88% (Interest Expense 6.28m / Debt 333.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -101.9m (EBIT -129.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 210.6m / Total Current Liabilities 149.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 333.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 928.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.64 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 279.4m / EBITDA -105.7m)
Debt / FCF = -1.72 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 279.4m / FCF TTM -162.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 500.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -23.99% (Net Income -208.2m / Total Assets 1.45b)
RoE = -41.60% (Net Income TTM -208.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 500.6m)
RoCE = -18.83% (EBIT -129.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 500.6m + L.T.Debt 184.7m))
RoIC = -18.53% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -101.9m / Invested Capital 550.2m)
WACC = 14.07% (E(1.94b)/V(2.27b) * Re(16.23%) + D(333.7m)/V(2.27b) * Rd(1.88%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 16.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 25.38%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -162.3m)
EPS Correlation: -4.62 | EPS CAGR: 5.95% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.77 | Revenue CAGR: 27.92% | SUE: -2.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.38 | Chg30d=-0.110 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+69.8% | Growth Revenue=+43.4%