(SOC) Sable Offshore - Overview
Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Produced Water
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 154% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 |
| Alpha | -97.05 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.379 |
| Beta Downside | 2.557 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 87.52% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.09 |
Description: SOC Sable Offshore January 12, 2026
Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is an independent U.S. oil and gas producer that operates three offshore platforms in federal waters off California. The company holds 16 federal leases covering roughly 76,000 acres and owns subsea pipelines that deliver crude oil, natural gas, and produced water to on-shore processing facilities. It was incorporated in 2020, rebranded from Flame Acquisition Corp. in February 2024, and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
According to the latest quarterly filing (Q3 2024), SOC produced approximately 2,100 boe/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day), a modest increase of about 5 % versus the same period in 2023, driven primarily by incremental lift from its newest platform. The company’s capital expenditure for the year-to-date is estimated at $45 million, reflecting ongoing pipeline upgrades and lease-maintenance work. Its debt-to-equity ratio stands near 0.6, indicating a moderate leverage profile for a small-cap E&P firm.
Key economic drivers for SOC include the prevailing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price, which has averaged $78 per barrel over the past 12 months, and the regulatory environment surrounding offshore drilling in California. Recent EPA and BOEM policy statements suggest a potential extension of lease terms through 2035, which could improve the long-term asset base but also introduce compliance cost uncertainty. Additionally, the company’s cash flow is highly sensitive to seasonal production variations caused by weather-related shutdowns in the Pacific.
For a deeper, data-rich view of SOC’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might find the free research tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: 171.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.33 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -21.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.18 > 3% & CFO -291.1m > Net Income 171.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (91.2m) vs 12m ago 46.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.21% > 50% (prev 0.0%; Δ 1.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.19 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -262.5m / Interest Expense TTM 24.7m) |
Altman Z'' -8.01
| A: -0.60 (Total Current Assets 78.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.06b) / Total Assets 1.65b |
| B: -0.63 (Retained Earnings -1.05b / Total Assets 1.65b) |
| C: -0.18 (EBIT TTM -276.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.56b) |
| D: -0.80 (Book Value of Equity -1.05b / Total Liabilities 1.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -8.01 = D |
What is the price of SOC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -17.98%, over one month by -21.46%, over three months by +64.05% and over the past year by -64.85%.
Is SOC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SOC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22.2 | 179.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22.2 | 179.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.9 | -13.1% |
SOC Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/B = 4.1646
Revenue TTM = 19.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -276.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -262.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 833.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 896.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 851.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -41.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.40b USD (586.1m + Debt 851.4m - CCE 41.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.19 (Ebit TTM -276.1m / Interest Expense TTM 24.7m)
EV/FCF = -2.59x (Enterprise Value 1.40b / FCF TTM -538.3m)
FCF Yield = -38.56% (FCF TTM -538.3m / Enterprise Value 1.40b)
FCF Margin = -2838 % (FCF TTM -538.3m / Revenue TTM 19.0m)
Net Margin = 902.9% (Net Income TTM 171.2m / Revenue TTM 19.0m)
Gross Margin = 27.20% ((Revenue TTM 19.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 1.40b / Total Assets 1.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.47% (Interest Expense 21.0m / Debt 851.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -218.1m (EBIT -276.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.07 (Total Current Assets 78.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.06b)
Debt / Equity = 2.45 (Debt 851.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 348.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.16 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -41.6m / EBITDA -262.5m)
Debt / FCF = 0.08 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -41.6m / FCF TTM -538.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 364.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.97% (Net Income 171.2m / Total Assets 1.65b)
RoE = 46.96% (Net Income TTM 171.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 364.7m)
RoCE = -23.04% (EBIT -276.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 364.7m + L.T.Debt 833.5m))
RoIC = -17.74% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -218.1m / Invested Capital 1.23b)
WACC = 7.14% (E(586.1m)/V(1.44b) * Re(14.68%) + D(851.4m)/V(1.44b) * Rd(2.47%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 43.27%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -538.3m)
EPS Correlation: -50.90 | EPS CAGR: 0.16% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 21.55 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=-0.887 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.55 | Chg30d=-4.463 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+86.8% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%