(SPG) Simon Property - Overview
Stock: Malls, Outlets, Mills, Mixed-Use
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.99% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 11.27% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.95% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 1.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.98% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.56 |
| Alpha | 3.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.854 |
| Beta Downside | 1.036 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.32% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.98 |
Description: SPG Simon Property January 29, 2026
Simon Property Group, Inc. (NYSE: SPG) is a self-administered REIT that, through its majority-owned Operating Partnership, owns and manages a portfolio of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations, including malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and international properties.
As of 31 December 2024, the company held interests in 229 properties covering roughly 183 million sq ft across North America, Asia, and Europe, plus an 88 % stake in Taubman Realty Group (22 malls) and a 22.4 % holding in Klepierre, a European shopping-center operator.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2025): FFO of $2.07 billion (≈ $8.80 per share), occupancy at 93.2 % (up 0.4 ppt YoY), and a dividend yield of ≈ 5.4 % on the current price of $120. The REIT’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 5.1×, reflecting a modest leverage profile relative to the sector median of 6.3×.
Sector drivers remain mixed: while consumer-discretionary spending is projected to grow ≈ 2.5 % YoY in 2026, elevated interest rates (Fed funds ≈ 5.25 %) increase financing costs for new development, and e-commerce penetration (≈ 15 % of total retail sales) continues to pressure traditional mall traffic. Simon’s focus on high-margin outlet concepts and mixed-use redevelopment is a strategic hedge against these headwinds.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of SPG’s valuation dynamics, you may find the ValueRay platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 4.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.23% < 20% (prev -9.50%; Δ 46.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 2.93b > Net Income 4.61b |
| Net Debt (29.12b) to EBITDA (7.78b): 3.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 871.1 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (326.0m) vs 12m ago -0.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 85.72% > 18% (prev 0.83%; Δ 8489 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 17.43% > 50% (prev 18.40%; Δ -0.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 7.78b / Interest Expense TTM 974.8m) |
Altman Z'' 1.03
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 2.37b - Total Current Liabilities 2.72m) / Total Assets 40.61b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -4.61b / Total Assets 40.61b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 6.30b / Avg Total Assets 36.51b) |
| D: -0.14 (Book Value of Equity -4.61b / Total Liabilities 33.90b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.03 = BB |
Beneish M -3.27
| DSRI: 0.61 (Receivables 934.1m/1.43b, Revenue 6.36b/5.96b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 85.72% / 82.92%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.90) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 6.36b / 5.96b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 4.61b - CFO 2.93b) / TA 40.61b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SPG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.38%, over one month by +7.90%, over three months by +10.45% and over the past year by +16.15%.
Is SPG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SPG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 200.7 | 0.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 200.7 | 0.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 244.3 | 22.4% |
SPG Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 31.348
P/S = 11.7035
P/B = 12.309
P/EG = 8.7406
Revenue TTM = 6.36b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.30b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.78b USD
Long Term Debt = 28.43b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 29.94b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 29.12b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 103.52b USD (74.40b + Debt 29.94b - CCE 823.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.46 (Ebit TTM 6.30b / Interest Expense TTM 974.8m)
EV/FCF = 45.94x (Enterprise Value 103.52b / FCF TTM 2.25b)
FCF Yield = 2.18% (FCF TTM 2.25b / Enterprise Value 103.52b)
FCF Margin = 35.41% (FCF TTM 2.25b / Revenue TTM 6.36b)
Net Margin = 72.51% (Net Income TTM 4.61b / Revenue TTM 6.36b)
Gross Margin = 85.72% ((Revenue TTM 6.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 909.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 91.37% (prev 83.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.55 (Enterprise Value 103.52b / Total Assets 40.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.91% (Interest Expense 272.3m / Debt 29.94b)
Taxrate = 0.66% (35.8m / 5.40b)
NOPAT = 6.26b (EBIT 6.30b * (1 - 0.66%))
Current Ratio = 871.1 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 2.37b / Total Current Liabilities 2.72m)
Debt / Equity = 5.75 (Debt 29.94b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.74 (Net Debt 29.12b / EBITDA 7.78b)
Debt / FCF = 12.92 (Net Debt 29.12b / FCF TTM 2.25b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.15b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.64% (Net Income 4.61b / Total Assets 40.61b)
RoE = 146.3% (Net Income TTM 4.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.15b)
RoCE = 19.94% (EBIT 6.30b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.15b + L.T.Debt 28.43b))
RoIC = 22.55% (NOPAT 6.26b / Invested Capital 27.74b)
WACC = 6.72% (E(74.40b)/V(104.35b) * Re(9.06%) + D(29.94b)/V(104.35b) * Rd(0.91%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.11% ; FCFF base≈2.58b ; Y1≈2.60b ; Y5≈2.80b
Fair Price DCF = 111.9 (EV 65.52b - Net Debt 29.12b = Equity 36.40b / Shares 325.2m; r=6.72% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.45% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -4.61 | EPS CAGR: -3.96% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.86 | Revenue CAGR: 9.02% | SUE: 3.47 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.57 | Chg30d=+0.017 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.73 | Chg30d=-0.156 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+13.8% | Growth Revenue=+6.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.09 | Chg30d=+0.061 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+5.5% | Growth Revenue=+3.5%