TAK Stock Analysis: Takeda Pharmaceutical | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 58.684m USD | 12M Return: 40.3% | US8740602052 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 44.9M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 78.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a Japan-headquartered global pharmaceutical company founded in 1781, operating in gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. It markets products under numerous brands including Entyvio, Takhzyro, Advate, Adcetris, Vyvanse, and Trintellix, and maintains an extensive network of licensing and collaboration agreements with dozens of biotechnology and pharmaceutical partners. The company operates across Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa, and trades on the NYSE as an ADR under the ticker TAK.
The pharmaceutical sector is characterized by high research and development intensity, long product development cycles, and heavy reliance on regulatory approvals from agencies such as the FDA, EMA, and Japans PMDA. Out-licensing and collaboration agreements, like those Takeda maintains, are a common business model used to share development risk, broaden pipeline access, and monetize intellectual property without bearing full commercialization costs.
- Entyvio sales growth offsets biosimilar competition concerns
- Rare disease and plasma-derived therapy segment revenue accelerates
- Debt deleveraging progresses as capital allocation prioritizes balance sheet repair
| Net Income: 182b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.28% < 20% (prev 7.67%; Δ 0.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 954b > Net Income 182b |
| Net Debt (4412b) to EBITDA (1293b): 3.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (3.21b) vs 12m ago 1.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.01% > 18% (prev 64.78%; Δ -5.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.42% > 50% (prev 31.99%; Δ -0.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.86 > 6 (EBIT TTM 591b / Interest Expense TTM 317b) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 3150b - Total Current Liabilities 2765b) / Total Assets 15663b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 667b / Total Assets 15663b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 591b / Avg Total Assets 14834b) |
| D: 0.93 (Book Value of Equity 7558b / Total Liabilities 8104b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.55 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.35 (Receivables 956b/680b, Revenue 4661b/4480b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 64.78% / 59.01%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 4661b / 4480b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 182b - CFO 954b) / TA 15663b) |
| Beneish M = -2.64 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.52 with a total of 2,925,074 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.32%, over one month by +1.71%, over three months by +14.72% and over the past year by +40.25%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.10 (which is 2.3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Takeda Pharmaceutical has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TAK.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22 | 18.7% |
Market Cap JPY = 9296b (58.7b USD * 158.41 USD.JPY)
P/E Forward = 11.4679
P/S = 0.0127
P/B = 1.2509
P/EG = 0.4231
Revenue TTM = 4661b JPY
EBIT TTM = 591b JPY
EBITDA TTM = 1293b JPY
Long Term Debt = 4420b JPY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 520b JPY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4940b JPY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4412b JPY (calculated: Debt 4940b - CCE 528b)
Enterprise Value = 13709b JPY (9296b + Debt 4940b - CCE 528b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.86 (Ebit TTM 591b / Interest Expense TTM 317b)
EV/FCF = 24.47x (Enterprise Value 13709b / FCF TTM 560b)
FCF Yield = 4.09% (FCF TTM 560b / Enterprise Value 13709b)
FCF Margin = 12.02% (FCF TTM 560b / Revenue TTM 4661b)
Net Margin = 3.91% (Net Income TTM 182b / Revenue TTM 4661b)
Gross Margin = 59.01% ((Revenue TTM 4661b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1910b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.66% (prev 48.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 13709b / Total Assets 15663b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.42% (Interest Expense 317b / Debt 4940b)
Taxrate = 33.35% (91.3b / 274b)
NOPAT = 394b (EBIT 591b * (1 - 33.35%))
Current Ratio = 1.14 (Total Current Assets 3150b / Total Current Liabilities 2765b)
Debt / Equity = 0.65 (Debt 4940b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7558b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.41 (Net Debt 4412b / EBITDA 1293b)
Debt / FCF = 7.88 (Net Debt 4412b / FCF TTM 560b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7536b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.23% (Net Income 182b / Total Assets 15663b)
RoE = 2.42% (Net Income TTM 182b / Total Stockholder Equity 7536b)
RoCE = 4.94% (EBIT 591b / Capital Employed (Equity 7536b + L.T.Debt 4420b))
RoIC = 2.99% (NOPAT 394b / Invested Capital 13186b)
WACC = 4.68% (E(9296b)/V(14236b) * Re(4.89%) + D(4940b)/V(14236b) * Rd(6.42%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 4.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 10.22 | Cagr: 1.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈650b ; Y1≈570b ; Y5≈461b
[DCF] Fair Price = 934.2 (EV 7396b - Net Debt 4412b = Equity 2983b / Shares 3.19b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.89 | Revenue CAGR: 3.36% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=149.59 | Chg30d=+192.41% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+145.2% | GrowthRev=+694.6%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=138.53 | Chg30d=-28.68% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-7.4% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)