TAK Stock Analysis: Takeda Pharmaceutical | NYSE

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 52.989m USD | 12M Return: 17% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Gastroenterology, Rare Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience
Total Rating 38
Safety 54
Buy Signal -0.65
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Industry Rotation: +11.8
Market Cap: 53.0B
Avg Turnover: 45.6M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility18.6%
VaR 5th Pctl3.25%
VaR vs Median6.12%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.65
Rel. Str. IBD38.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group27.8
Character TTM
Beta-0.058
Beta Downside-0.196
Hurst Exponent0.540
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD19.93%
CAGR/Max DD0.38
CAGR/Mean DD0.97
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TAK over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 64, "2021-09": -5.13, "2021-12": 0.1605, "2022-03": -0.0271, "2022-06": 33.97, "2022-09": 20.03, "2022-12": 0.2927, "2023-03": 0.074, "2023-06": 28.76, "2023-09": -15.5, "2023-12": 33.79, "2024-03": -0.0065, "2024-06": 0.1923, "2024-09": 29.07, "2024-12": 0.0478, "2025-03": -0.2276, "2025-06": 151, "2025-09": -0.0253, "2025-12": 0.2099, "2026-03": null,
EPS CAGR: 67.26%
EPS Trend: 56.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TAK over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 949603, 2021-09: 844819, 2021-12: 901294, 2022-03: 873289, 2022-06: 972465, 2022-09: 1002307, 2022-12: 1096551, 2023-03: 956156, 2023-06: 1058618, 2023-09: 1043089, 2023-12: 1111186, 2024-03: 1050869, 2024-06: 1207990, 2024-09: 1176038, 2024-12: 1144124, 2025-03: 1053400, 2025-06: 1106685, 2025-09: 1112796, 2025-12: 1213211.32, 2026-03: 1114648.916,
Rev. CAGR: 3.65%
Rev. Trend: 80.4%
Last SUE: 0.16
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Extended 1w

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.6% 18
Feb +0.5% 2
Mar +0.8% 0
Apr -2.9% 15
May -1.1% 16
Jun -1.9% 31
Jul +0.3% 5
Aug +0.3% 21
Sep -0.6% 9
Oct -2.4% 23
Nov +3.2% 9
Dec +0.1% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a Japan-based global pharmaceutical company that engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products across therapeutic areas including gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. Its product portfolio spans brands such as Entyvio, Takhzyro, Advate, Adcetris, Vyvanse/Elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA, supported by an extensive network of licensing and collaboration agreements with partners including Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, AbbVie, GSK, and Neurocrine Biosciences. The company operates globally, with a presence in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/CIS, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. Takeda was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.

As a major pharmaceutical firm, Takedas business model relies heavily on long product development cycles and the exclusivity provided by patents and regulatory approvals, including orphan drug designations for its rare disease and plasma-derived therapy franchises. Its large-scale collaboration and licensing activity reflects a common industry strategy of supplementing internal R&D pipelines with external innovation.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Entyvio sales growth sustains core revenue momentum
  • Yen weakness boosts translated US pharmaceutical revenue
  • Deleveraging progress following Shire acquisition reduces balance sheet risk
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: 193b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.12 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 14.60% < 20% (prev 0.32%; Δ 14.28% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 987b > Net Income 193b
Net Debt (4305b) to EBITDA (1370b): 3.14 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.27 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (3.12b) vs 12m ago -1.21% < -2%
Gross Margin: 58.47% > 18% (prev 65.51%; Δ -7.04% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 30.55% > 50% (prev 32.15%; Δ -1.60% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.73 > 6 (EBIT TTM 622b / Interest Expense TTM 361b)
Altman Z'' 1.85
A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 3104b - Total Current Liabilities 2440b) / Total Assets 15520b
B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 1061b / Total Assets 15520b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 622b / Avg Total Assets 14884b)
D: 1.01 (Book Value of Equity 7807b / Total Liabilities 7712b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.85 = BBB
Beneish M -2.76
DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 880b/725b, Revenue 4547b/4582b)
GMI: 1.12 (GM 65.51% / 58.47%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.68)
SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 4547b / 4582b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 193b - CFO 987b) / TA 15520b)
Beneish M = -2.76 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of TAK shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.96 with a total of 2,654,177 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.13%, over one month by +7.75%, over three months by -7.27% and over the past year by +16.99%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.50 (which is 2.7% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is TAK a buy, sell or hold?

Takeda Pharmaceutical has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TAK.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TAK price?
Analysts Target Price 21 23.9%
Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 07 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 53.0b (53.0b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap JPY = 8601b (53.0b USD * 162.32 USD.JPY)
P/E Forward = 10.846
P/S = 0.0118
P/B = 1.1539
P/EG = 0.4271
Revenue TTM = 4547b JPY
EBIT TTM = 622b JPY
EBITDA TTM = 1370b JPY
Long Term Debt = 4370b JPY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 514b JPY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4903b JPY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4305b JPY (calculated: Debt 4903b - CCE 598b)
Enterprise Value = 12907b JPY (8601b + Debt 4903b - CCE 598b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.73 (Ebit TTM 622b / Interest Expense TTM 361b)
EV/FCF = 21.85x (Enterprise Value 12907b / FCF TTM 591b)
FCF Yield = 4.58% (FCF TTM 591b / Enterprise Value 12907b)
FCF Margin = 12.99% (FCF TTM 591b / Revenue TTM 4547b)
Net Margin = 4.25% (Net Income TTM 193b / Revenue TTM 4547b)
Gross Margin = 58.47% ((Revenue TTM 4547b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1888b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.79% (prev 54.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 12907b / Total Assets 15520b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.35% (Interest Expense 361b / Debt 4903b)
Taxrate = 26.06% (68.2b / 262b)
NOPAT = 460b (EBIT 622b * (1 - 26.06%))
Current Ratio = 1.27 (Total Current Assets 3104b / Total Current Liabilities 2440b)
Debt / Equity = 0.63 (Debt 4903b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7807b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.14 (Net Debt 4305b / EBITDA 1370b)
Debt / FCF = 7.29 (Net Debt 4305b / FCF TTM 591b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7363b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.30% (Net Income 193b / Total Assets 15520b)
RoE = 2.62% (Net Income TTM 193b / Total Stockholder Equity 7363b)
RoCE = 5.30% (EBIT 622b / Capital Employed (Equity 7363b + L.T.Debt 4370b))
RoIC = 3.44% (NOPAT 460b / Invested Capital 13367b)
WACC = 5.66% (E(8601b)/V(13504b) * Re(5.78%) + D(4903b)/V(13504b) * Rd(7.35%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 5.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -15.56 | Cagr: -0.64%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈692b ; Y1≈607b ; Y5≈491b
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.13k (EV 7873b - Net Debt 4305b = Equity 3568b / Shares 3.16b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 56.53 | EPS CAGR: 67.26% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 80.42 | Revenue CAGR: 3.65% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-03-31): EPS=49.21 | Chg30d=-33.51% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+44.7% | GrowthRev=+680.8%
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=50.77 | Chg30d=-46.24% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-16.8% | GrowthRev=+682.7%