(TALO) Talos Energy - Overview
Stock: Oil, Natural Gas, Liquids, Carbon Sequestration
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.23% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.78 |
| Alpha | 13.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.491 |
| Beta Downside | 2.157 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.30% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.20 |
Description: TALO Talos Energy January 16, 2026
Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO) is an independent upstream company focused on the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids across onshore basins in the United States and Mexico, with a growing ancillary business in carbon-capture and sequestration (CCS). Founded in 2011 and based in Houston, Texas, the firm operates primarily in the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin, positioning itself in the GICS sub-industry “Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.”
As of its most recent quarterly release (Q4 2023), Talos reported net production of approximately 37 MMcf/d of natural gas and 9 Mbbl/d of oil-equivalent, generating $1.2 billion in revenue and a free cash flow conversion of roughly 45 %. The company’s balance sheet shows $1.8 billion of total debt, yielding a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 2.5×, while its CCS pilot projects in the Eagle Ford are targeting a 1-MtCO₂e capture capacity by 2026. Key macro drivers include U.S. WTI price trends, the pace of Mexican energy reforms, and federal CCS tax incentives (45Q), each of which materially affect Talos’s cash-flow outlook.
If you want a data-rich, model-ready view of Talos’s valuation assumptions and scenario analyses, ValueRay’s platform offers a free downloadable spreadsheet that can jump-start your own due-diligence.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -356.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.28% < 20% (prev -1.19%; Δ 10.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 1.08b > Net Income -356.2m |
| Net Debt (1.03b) to EBITDA (968.5m): 1.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (173.3m) vs 12m ago -4.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.75% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 1456 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 30.96% > 50% (prev 29.28%; Δ 1.69% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.48 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 968.5m / Interest Expense TTM 164.1m) |
Altman Z'' -0.71
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 810.9m - Total Current Liabilities 637.1m) / Total Assets 5.70b |
| B: -0.13 (Retained Earnings -715.8m / Total Assets 5.70b) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -243.4m / Avg Total Assets 6.05b) |
| D: -0.22 (Book Value of Equity -713.9m / Total Liabilities 3.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.71 = B |
Beneish M -3.73
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 332.6m/393.1m, Revenue 1.87b/1.87b) |
| GMI: 1.26 (GM 14.75% / 18.65%) |
| AQI: 0.06 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 1.87b / 1.87b) |
| TATA: -0.25 (NI -356.2m - CFO 1.08b) / TA 5.70b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.73 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of TALO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.63%, over one month by +20.47%, over three months by +29.96% and over the past year by +36.67%.
Is TALO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TALO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.2 | 12% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.2 | 12% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14 | 9.9% |
TALO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.1118
P/B = 0.8633
Revenue TTM = 1.87b USD
EBIT TTM = -243.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 968.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 24.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.03b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.11b USD (2.08b + Debt 1.36b - CCE 332.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.48 (Ebit TTM -243.4m / Interest Expense TTM 164.1m)
EV/FCF = 3.34x (Enterprise Value 3.11b / FCF TTM 929.7m)
FCF Yield = 29.92% (FCF TTM 929.7m / Enterprise Value 3.11b)
FCF Margin = 49.63% (FCF TTM 929.7m / Revenue TTM 1.87b)
Net Margin = -19.02% (Net Income TTM -356.2m / Revenue TTM 1.87b)
Gross Margin = 14.75% ((Revenue TTM 1.87b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.60b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.91% (prev 4.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.55 (Enterprise Value 3.11b / Total Assets 5.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.01% (Interest Expense 40.8m / Debt 1.36b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -192.3m (EBIT -243.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.27 (Total Current Assets 810.9m / Total Current Liabilities 637.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.57 (Debt 1.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.38b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.06 (Net Debt 1.03b / EBITDA 968.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.10 (Net Debt 1.03b / FCF TTM 929.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.89% (Net Income -356.2m / Total Assets 5.70b)
RoE = -13.71% (Net Income TTM -356.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.60b)
RoCE = -6.37% (EBIT -243.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.60b + L.T.Debt 1.22b))
RoIC = -5.03% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -192.3m / Invested Capital 3.82b)
WACC = 7.84% (E(2.08b)/V(3.44b) * Re(11.41%) + D(1.36b)/V(3.44b) * Rd(3.01%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 17.66%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.77% ; FCFF base≈716.8m ; Y1≈884.2m ; Y5≈1.51b
Fair Price DCF = 148.6 (EV 26.28b - Net Debt 1.03b = Equity 25.25b / Shares 170.0m; r=7.84% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -32.44 | EPS CAGR: 46.52% | SUE: 0.81 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.45 | Revenue CAGR: 4.40% | SUE: 1.46 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.39 | Chg30d=-0.045 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.75 | Chg30d=-0.273 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=-86.7% | Growth Revenue=-8.1%