(TG) Tredegar - Overview
Stock: Aluminum Extrusions, Plastic Films, Surface Protection, PE Overwrap
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Alpha | -0.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.115 |
| Beta Downside | 1.041 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 65.70% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.10 |
Description: TG Tredegar December 29, 2025
Tredegar Corporation (NYSE:TG) manufactures aluminum extrusions and polyethylene/polypropylene films through two distinct segments-Aluminum Extrusions and PE Films-serving construction, automotive, consumer durable, and electronics markets both domestically and abroad.
Recent filings show FY 2023 revenue of roughly $620 million, with the Aluminum Extrusions segment contributing about 70 % of sales and operating at an EBITDA margin near 12 %. The PE Films business, driven by demand for protective layers on flat-panel displays and automotive interiors, posted a 9 % EBITDA margin and is sensitive to semiconductor-related capex cycles. Key macro drivers include U.S. construction spending (which has risen ~4 % YoY) and aluminum price volatility (average spot price $2,300/ton in Q4 2024), both of which can materially affect gross margins.
For a deeper quantitative dive, consider reviewing Tredegar’s metrics on ValueRay to see how these drivers are reflected in the model’s forward outlook.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -53.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.89% < 20% (prev -7.49%; Δ 19.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 36.7m > Net Income -53.8m |
| Net Debt (50.0m) to EBITDA (17.8m): 2.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.8m) vs 12m ago 1.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.11% > 18% (prev 0.15%; Δ 1596 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 143.4% > 50% (prev 153.9%; Δ -10.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.03 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 17.8m / Interest Expense TTM 9.22m) |
Altman Z'' 3.57
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 174.9m - Total Current Liabilities 104.9m) / Total Assets 378.8m |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 132.3m / Total Assets 378.8m) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 272.0k / Avg Total Assets 410.7m) |
| D: 1.16 (Book Value of Equity 204.4m / Total Liabilities 176.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.57 = A |
Beneish M -3.24
| DSRI: 1.25 (Receivables 88.2m/81.6m, Revenue 588.8m/681.1m) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 16.11% / 14.76%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 0.86 (Revenue 588.8m / 681.1m) |
| TATA: -0.24 (NI -53.8m - CFO 36.7m) / TA 378.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of TG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.30%, over one month by +22.49%, over three months by +47.22% and over the past year by +17.22%.
Is TG a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the TG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17 | 83.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17 | 83.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.9 | -3.5% |
TG Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.4304
P/B = 1.528
Revenue TTM = 588.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 272.0k USD
EBITDA TTM = 17.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 49.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.69m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 63.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 50.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 343.3m USD (293.3m + Debt 63.3m - CCE 13.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.03 (Ebit TTM 272.0k / Interest Expense TTM 9.22m)
EV/FCF = 16.49x (Enterprise Value 343.3m / FCF TTM 20.8m)
FCF Yield = 6.07% (FCF TTM 20.8m / Enterprise Value 343.3m)
FCF Margin = 3.54% (FCF TTM 20.8m / Revenue TTM 588.8m)
Net Margin = -9.14% (Net Income TTM -53.8m / Revenue TTM 588.8m)
Gross Margin = 16.11% ((Revenue TTM 588.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 493.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.44% (prev 13.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 343.3m / Total Assets 378.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.21% (Interest Expense 768.0k / Debt 63.3m)
Taxrate = 22.08% (2.01m / 9.12m)
NOPAT = 212.0k (EBIT 272.0k * (1 - 22.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 174.9m / Total Current Liabilities 104.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 63.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 202.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.81 (Net Debt 50.0m / EBITDA 17.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.40 (Net Debt 50.0m / FCF TTM 20.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 192.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.10% (Net Income -53.8m / Total Assets 378.8m)
RoE = -27.99% (Net Income TTM -53.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 192.2m)
RoCE = 0.11% (EBIT 272.0k / Capital Employed (Equity 192.2m + L.T.Debt 49.5m))
RoIC = 0.08% (NOPAT 212.0k / Invested Capital 249.8m)
WACC = 8.41% (E(293.3m)/V(356.6m) * Re(10.02%) + D(63.3m)/V(356.6m) * Rd(1.21%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.70%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.38% ; FCFF base≈20.8m ; Y1≈13.7m ; Y5≈6.24m
Fair Price DCF = 1.83 (EV 113.8m - Net Debt 50.0m = Equity 63.8m / Shares 34.8m; r=8.41% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -24.07 | EPS CAGR: 3.31% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -47.33 | Revenue CAGR: -3.29% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0