(TKO) TKO Holdings - Overview
Stock: Live Events, Streaming, Merchandise, Sponsorships
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.25% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.20% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 47.95% |
| Payout Consistency | 83.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 88.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -20.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.91 |
| Alpha | 20.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.766 |
| Beta Downside | 0.990 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.80% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.06 |
Description: TKO TKO Holdings January 03, 2026
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:TKO) is a sports-and-entertainment conglomerate that monetizes a portfolio of intellectual property-including the UFC brand-through live events, broadcast licensing, and a direct-to-consumer streaming service (UFC Fight Pass). It also generates revenue from merchandising (apparel, video games, collectibles) and sells advertising and sponsorship assets across in-venue, broadcast, and digital platforms. TKO is a newly incorporated subsidiary of Endeavor Group Holdings, headquartered in New York.
Key performance indicators that analysts watch include UFC Fight Pass subscriber growth (the platform reported ~1.2 million active subscribers in Q4 2023, a ~15 % YoY increase), pay-per-view (PPV) event revenue (which contributed roughly 45 % of total UFC revenue in 2023), and the margin expansion from digital advertising (digital ad-supported impressions grew ~20 % YoY, pushing the overall advertising contribution margin toward 30 %). Recent multi-year media rights agreements in Europe and Asia have also lifted the company’s recurring revenue base, providing a more stable cash-flow profile.
Sector-wide, discretionary consumer spending and the broader shift toward streaming-first consumption are the primary economic drivers for TKO’s outlook; a 1 % dip in U.S. consumer confidence historically correlates with a ~0.3 % decline in PPV sales, while rising global digital ad spend supports higher sponsorship revenues. Monitoring macro trends in disposable income and the competitive landscape of sports streaming will be essential for assessing upside potential.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s analyst platform useful for drilling into TKO’s valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 228.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.97% < 20% (prev 3.51%; Δ 12.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.03b > Net Income 228.8m |
| Net Debt (3.18b) to EBITDA (1.27b): 2.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.1m) vs 12m ago 16.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.95% > 18% (prev 0.45%; Δ 5051 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 30.65% > 50% (prev 29.06%; Δ 1.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.30 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.27b / Interest Expense TTM 200.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.41
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 2.21b - Total Current Liabilities 1.52b) / Total Assets 15.55b |
| B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -752.4m / Total Assets 15.55b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 860.5m / Avg Total Assets 14.16b) |
| D: -0.13 (Book Value of Equity -770.4m / Total Liabilities 6.10b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.41 = B |
Beneish M -2.50
| DSRI: 1.75 (Receivables 583.2m/285.0m, Revenue 4.34b/3.71b) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 50.95% / 44.54%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.80 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 4.34b / 3.71b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 228.8m - CFO 1.03b) / TA 15.55b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.50 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TKO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.60%, over one month by +4.48%, over three months by +17.51% and over the past year by +33.10%.
Is TKO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 13
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TKO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 227.3 | 7.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 227.3 | 7.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 287.7 | 35.8% |
TKO Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 38.61
P/S = 6.4898
P/B = 4.1537
Revenue TTM = 4.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 860.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.27b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.70b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.18b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.70b USD (16.52b + Debt 4.04b - CCE 861.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.30 (Ebit TTM 860.5m / Interest Expense TTM 200.1m)
EV/FCF = 19.81x (Enterprise Value 19.70b / FCF TTM 994.5m)
FCF Yield = 5.05% (FCF TTM 994.5m / Enterprise Value 19.70b)
FCF Margin = 22.92% (FCF TTM 994.5m / Revenue TTM 4.34b)
Net Margin = 5.27% (Net Income TTM 228.8m / Revenue TTM 4.34b)
Gross Margin = 50.95% ((Revenue TTM 4.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.21% (prev 55.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.27 (Enterprise Value 19.70b / Total Assets 15.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.26% (Interest Expense 50.8m / Debt 4.04b)
Taxrate = 10.68% (12.8m / 119.6m)
NOPAT = 768.5m (EBIT 860.5m * (1 - 10.68%))
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 2.21b / Total Current Liabilities 1.52b)
Debt / Equity = 1.06 (Debt 4.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (Net Debt 3.18b / EBITDA 1.27b)
Debt / FCF = 3.20 (Net Debt 3.18b / FCF TTM 994.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.62% (Net Income 228.8m / Total Assets 15.55b)
RoE = 5.60% (Net Income TTM 228.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.08b)
RoCE = 11.05% (EBIT 860.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.08b + L.T.Debt 3.70b))
RoIC = 10.85% (NOPAT 768.5m / Invested Capital 7.09b)
WACC = 7.24% (E(16.52b)/V(20.56b) * Re(8.74%) + D(4.04b)/V(20.56b) * Rd(1.26%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 8.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 55.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.77% ; FCFF base≈897.7m ; Y1≈1.11b ; Y5≈1.89b
Fair Price DCF = 436.3 (EV 37.61b - Net Debt 3.18b = Equity 34.43b / Shares 78.9m; r=7.24% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -12.76 | EPS CAGR: -11.57% | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.89 | Revenue CAGR: 40.82% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=-0.058 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.65 | Chg30d=-0.511 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+128.7% | Growth Revenue=+28.6%