(TMHC) Taylor Morn Home - Overview
Stock: Homes, Communities, Rentals, Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.41% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.08 |
| Alpha | -11.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.656 |
| Beta Downside | 0.443 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 27.90% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.80 |
Description: TMHC Taylor Morn Home January 09, 2026
Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (TMHC) is a U.S. land developer and homebuilder that designs, constructs, and sells single- and multi-family detached and attached homes, while also creating master-planned communities. Through its Urban Form brand it builds mixed-use projects that combine commercial, retail, and multifamily space, and under the Yardly brand it operates a build-to-rent segment. The company markets its products under the Taylor Morrison, Darling Homes Collection, and Esplanade names across 12 states, with its corporate headquarters in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Recent data (FY 2023) show TMHC generated roughly $6.2 billion in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 7 % and an average selling price of about $440 k per home-both metrics tracking above the industry median. The firm’s inventory turnover accelerated to 5.8 months, reflecting tighter supply and strong demand in its core Sun Belt markets. Key macro drivers include the Fed’s policy stance on mortgage rates (which currently sit around 6-7 % for 30-year fixed) and persistent housing affordability constraints that favor established builders with land banks and diversified product lines.
For a deeper, data-driven view of TMHC’s valuation and risk profile, you may find it worthwhile to explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 853.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 77.90% < 20% (prev 81.08%; Δ -3.17% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 619.3m > Net Income 853.6m |
| Net Debt (1.89b) to EBITDA (1.28b): 1.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (100.0m) vs 12m ago -5.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.96% > 18% (prev 0.24%; Δ 2372 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 88.53% > 50% (prev 84.21%; Δ 4.32% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 30.55 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.28b / Interest Expense TTM 41.0m) |
Altman Z'' 8.56
| A: 0.68 (Total Current Assets 7.60b - Total Current Liabilities 1.07b) / Total Assets 9.63b |
| B: 0.52 (Retained Earnings 5.00b / Total Assets 9.63b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.25b / Avg Total Assets 9.46b) |
| D: 1.46 (Book Value of Equity 5.00b / Total Liabilities 3.43b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 8.56 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.70
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 266.0m/207.6m, Revenue 8.38b/7.83b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 23.96% / 24.45%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 8.38b / 7.83b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 853.6m - CFO 619.3m) / TA 9.63b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.70 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TMHC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.94%, over one month by +10.31%, over three months by +11.27% and over the past year by +0.98%.
Is TMHC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMHC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 75.3 | 15.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 75.3 | 15.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 75.4 | 15.6% |
TMHC Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.4167
P/S = 0.719
P/B = 0.9726
P/EG = 1.511
Revenue TTM = 8.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.25b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.28b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 73.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.26b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.89b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.92b USD (6.02b + Debt 2.26b - CCE 370.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 30.55 (Ebit TTM 1.25b / Interest Expense TTM 41.0m)
EV/FCF = 13.65x (Enterprise Value 7.92b / FCF TTM 580.0m)
FCF Yield = 7.33% (FCF TTM 580.0m / Enterprise Value 7.92b)
FCF Margin = 6.92% (FCF TTM 580.0m / Revenue TTM 8.38b)
Net Margin = 10.19% (Net Income TTM 853.6m / Revenue TTM 8.38b)
Gross Margin = 23.96% ((Revenue TTM 8.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.37b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.74% (prev 23.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 7.92b / Total Assets 9.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.56% (Interest Expense 12.8m / Debt 2.26b)
Taxrate = 24.94% (67.9m / 272.4m)
NOPAT = 939.9m (EBIT 1.25b * (1 - 24.94%))
Current Ratio = 7.09 (Total Current Assets 7.60b / Total Current Liabilities 1.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 2.26b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.48 (Net Debt 1.89b / EBITDA 1.28b)
Debt / FCF = 3.26 (Net Debt 1.89b / FCF TTM 580.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.02% (Net Income 853.6m / Total Assets 9.63b)
RoE = 14.20% (Net Income TTM 853.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 6.01b)
RoCE = 15.27% (EBIT 1.25b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.01b + L.T.Debt 2.19b))
RoIC = 11.55% (NOPAT 939.9m / Invested Capital 8.13b)
WACC = 6.17% (E(6.02b)/V(8.29b) * Re(8.33%) + D(2.26b)/V(8.29b) * Rd(0.56%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.18%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.14% ; FCFF base≈356.0m ; Y1≈353.3m ; Y5≈368.5m
Fair Price DCF = 83.93 (EV 10.09b - Net Debt 1.89b = Equity 8.20b / Shares 97.7m; r=6.17% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -1.47% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -34.17 | EPS CAGR: -42.68% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -0.91 | Revenue CAGR: -4.65% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.10 | Chg30d=-0.031 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.47 | Chg30d=-0.135 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-17.2% | Growth Revenue=-11.8%