(TOL) Toll Brothers - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US8894781033

Stock: Luxury Homes, Condominiums, Apartments, Golf Communities, Home Automation

Total Rating 43

Risk 95

Buy Signal 0.54

Residential Construction » Homebuilding
Age: 38.1y

Market Cap: 13,727m
Avg Trading Vol: 173M USD

ATR: 3.14%
Peers RS (IBD): 86.96

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -38.56%
EPS Trend: -12.9%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 18.86%
Rev. Trend: 37.4%

Last SUE: 0.79
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	0.85%
Yield on Cost 5y	1.92%
Yield CAGR 5y	12.13%
Payout Consistency	99.5%
Payout Ratio	7.4%

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	32.5%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.04%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.49
Alpha	0.77

Character TTM
Beta	0.838
Beta Downside	0.573

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	45.97%
CAGR/Max DD	0.86

Description: TOL Toll Brothers January 03, 2026

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is a U.S. homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets and sells luxury detached and attached homes, as well as condominiums under the “City Living” brand. The firm also develops single-story and first-floor primary-suite models, and offers full-service interior fit-outs, smart-home technology, and a suite of ancillary services-including mortgage, title, insurance, and component manufacturing-to serve first-time, move-up, empty-nest, active-adult and second-home buyers.

In FY 2023 the company reported revenue of roughly $9.3 billion and net income of $0.9 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) of about $620 k per home and a backlog of $8.5 billion, indicating strong demand despite a tightening mortgage-rate environment. Key economic drivers for Toll Brothers include the Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rates (which directly impacts mortgage affordability), housing-starts data, and demographic trends such as the aging-boom-time-baby-boom cohort seeking downsized luxury homes. Sector-wide, labor shortages and lumber-price volatility remain material cost risks that can compress margins if not managed.

For a deeper quantitative view of Toll Brothers’ valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay analysis provides a concise, data-driven supplement worth reviewing.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5

Net Income: 1.35b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.06 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 89.69% < 20% (prev 83.52%; Δ 6.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.11b > Net Income 1.35b
Net Debt (1.66b) to EBITDA (1.84b): 0.90 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.17 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (97.5m) vs 12m ago -5.01% < -2%
Gross Margin: 25.70% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 2542 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 78.65% > 50% (prev 81.14%; Δ -2.49% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -53.40 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM -32.9m)

Altman Z'' 8.66

A: 0.68 (Total Current Assets 12.94b - Total Current Liabilities 3.11b) / Total Assets 14.52b
B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 8.57b / Total Assets 14.52b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.76b / Avg Total Assets 13.94b)
D: 1.38 (Book Value of Equity 8.60b / Total Liabilities 6.23b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 8.66 = AAA

Beneish M -2.96

DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 157.9m/150.7m, Revenue 10.97b/10.85b)
GMI: 1.08 (GM 25.70% / 27.86%)
AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.09)
SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 10.97b / 10.85b)
TATA: 0.02 (NI 1.35b - CFO 1.11b) / TA 14.52b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of TOL shares?

As of February 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 153.28 with a total of 1,746,500 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.08%, over one month by +12.84%, over three months by +15.76% and over the past year by +16.26%.

Is TOL a buy, sell or hold?

Toll Brothers has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TOL.

StrongBuy: 9
Buy: 3
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TOL price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	154.1	0.6%
Analysts Target Price	154.1	0.6%
ValueRay Target Price	198.4	29.4%

TOL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026

P/E Trailing = 10.703
P/E Forward = 10.8932
P/S = 1.2517
P/B = 1.6553
P/EG = 1.1738
Revenue TTM = 10.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.76b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.79b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 128.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.92b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.66b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.38b USD (13.73b + Debt 2.92b - CCE 1.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -53.40 (Ebit TTM 1.76b / Interest Expense TTM -32.9m)
EV/FCF = 14.99x (Enterprise Value 15.38b / FCF TTM 1.03b)
FCF Yield = 6.67% (FCF TTM 1.03b / Enterprise Value 15.38b)
FCF Margin = 9.36% (FCF TTM 1.03b / Revenue TTM 10.97b)
Net Margin = 12.28% (Net Income TTM 1.35b / Revenue TTM 10.97b)
Gross Margin = 25.70% ((Revenue TTM 10.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.96% (prev 25.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 15.38b / Total Assets 14.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.67% (Interest Expense 48.8m / Debt 2.92b)
Taxrate = 24.67% (146.3m / 593.0m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.76b * (1 - 24.67%))
Current Ratio = 4.17 (Total Current Assets 12.94b / Total Current Liabilities 3.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 2.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.90 (Net Debt 1.66b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.61 (Net Debt 1.66b / FCF TTM 1.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.66% (Net Income 1.35b / Total Assets 14.52b)
RoE = 16.77% (Net Income TTM 1.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.03b)
RoCE = 16.26% (EBIT 1.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.03b + L.T.Debt 2.79b))
RoIC = 12.21% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 10.85b)
WACC = 7.64% (E(13.73b)/V(16.64b) * Re(9.0%) + D(2.92b)/V(16.64b) * Rd(1.67%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.14%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.74% ; FCFF base≈990.3m ; Y1≈1.01b ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 205.4 (EV 21.12b - Net Debt 1.66b = Equity 19.46b / Shares 94.7m; r=7.64% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.17% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -12.88 | EPS CAGR: -38.56% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.40 | Revenue CAGR: 18.86% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=-0.259 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=12.84 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-9 | Growth EPS=-4.8% | Growth Revenue=-4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=14.25 | Chg30d=-0.998 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+11.0% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%

Additional Sources for TOL Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle