(TPL) Texas Pacific Land Trust - Overview
Stock: Land, Royalties, Water, Easements, Materials
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.09 |
| Alpha | -20.38 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.314 |
| Beta Downside | 1.702 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 52.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.61 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: TPL Texas Pacific Land Trust February 13, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL) operates two core businesses: a Land & Resource Management segment that holds surface acreage, oil-and-gas royalty interests, and easements in the Permian Basin; and a Water Services & Operations segment that delivers water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal for regional operators.
The Land & Resource Management unit controls a 1/128th non-participating perpetual royalty interest (NPRI) on roughly 85,000 acres, a 1/16th NPRI on about 371,000 acres, and an additional 16,000 net royalty acres-totaling approximately 207,000 net royalty acres (NRA). It also monetizes easements for pipelines, power lines, and subsurface wellbore access, and generates ancillary revenue by leasing land for processing, storage, compression facilities, and by selling construction materials such as caliche and sand.
The Water Services & Operations segment provides end-to-end water solutions, including sourcing fresh water, treating produced water, building and maintaining conveyance infrastructure, and disposing of waste streams. The segment also earns royalties on produced water, aligning its cash flow with the intensity of drilling activity in the basin.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2023 / FY 2023): • Net income of $1.2 billion, driven by a 28 % increase in royalty revenue; • Cash from operations of $1.5 billion, supporting a $0.68 per-share dividend and a $2.10 cash-per-share payout ratio; • Total surface acreage held at 878,000 acres, of which 207,000 acres generate NPRI income; • Water-treatment capacity of ~3.5 million barrels per day, matching the Permian’s 8 % YoY production growth and an average WTI price of $80 per barrel in 2023. These figures illustrate how TPL’s cash generation is tightly coupled to Permian drilling cycles and commodity price trends.
For a deeper, data-driven view of TPL’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analytics platform ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 476.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.34 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.65% < 20% (prev 92.87%; Δ -7.22% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.37 > 3% & CFO 558.8m > Net Income 476.4m |
| Net Debt (-515.3m) to EBITDA (643.6m): -0.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 9.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.0m) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.44% > 18% (prev 0.92%; Δ 8653 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 57.20% > 50% (prev 58.41%; Δ -1.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -32.87 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 643.6m / Interest Expense TTM -18.0m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.43 (Total Current Assets 737.2m - Total Current Liabilities 75.6m) / Total Assets 1.52b |
| B: 0.99 (Retained Earnings 1.51b / Total Assets 1.52b) |
| C: 0.44 (EBIT TTM 591.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.35b) |
| D: 9.64 (Book Value of Equity 1.51b / Total Liabilities 156.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 19.14 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 127.8m/122.6m, Revenue 772.4m/686.7m) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 87.44% / 91.57%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 772.4m / 686.7m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 476.4m - CFO 558.8m) / TA 1.52b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of TPL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.43%, over one month by +30.63%, over three months by +35.71% and over the past year by -7.51%.
Is TPL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the TPL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 635 | 46.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 635 | 46.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 524 | 21.2% |
TPL Fundamental Data Overview February 16, 2026
P/E Forward = 37.7358
P/S = 38.5848
P/B = 21.7862
Revenue TTM = 772.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 591.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 643.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 16.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.16m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -515.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 22.21b USD (22.73b + Debt 16.5m - CCE 531.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -32.87 (Ebit TTM 591.5m / Interest Expense TTM -18.0m)
EV/FCF = 43.15x (Enterprise Value 22.21b / FCF TTM 514.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.32% (FCF TTM 514.7m / Enterprise Value 22.21b)
FCF Margin = 66.64% (FCF TTM 514.7m / Revenue TTM 772.4m)
Net Margin = 61.68% (Net Income TTM 476.4m / Revenue TTM 772.4m)
Gross Margin = 87.44% ((Revenue TTM 772.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 97.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.54% (prev 88.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 14.57 (Enterprise Value 22.21b / Total Assets 1.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 53.26% (Interest Expense 8.79m / Debt 16.5m)
Taxrate = 21.87% (33.9m / 155.2m)
NOPAT = 462.2m (EBIT 591.5m * (1 - 21.87%))
Current Ratio = 9.75 (Total Current Assets 737.2m / Total Current Liabilities 75.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 16.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.80 (Net Debt -515.3m / EBITDA 643.6m)
Debt / FCF = -1.00 (Net Debt -515.3m / FCF TTM 514.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.25b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 35.28% (Net Income 476.4m / Total Assets 1.52b)
RoE = 38.14% (Net Income TTM 476.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.25b)
RoCE = 46.75% (EBIT 591.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.25b + L.T.Debt 16.5m))
RoIC = 37.01% (NOPAT 462.2m / Invested Capital 1.25b)
WACC = 10.75% (E(22.73b)/V(22.74b) * Re(10.76%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.11% ; FCFF base≈490.7m ; Y1≈530.0m ; Y5≈654.7m
Fair Price DCF = 342.0 (EV 7.34b - Net Debt -515.3m = Equity 7.86b / Shares 23.0m; r=10.75% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.06% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -78.75 | EPS CAGR: -52.50% | SUE: -1.94 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.69 | Revenue CAGR: 8.97% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=5.94 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=25.29 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+19.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%