(TWO) Two Harbors Investments - Overview
Stock: Mortgage-Backed Securities, Servicing Rights, REIT Dividends
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 14.33% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 11.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 24.43% |
| Payout Consistency | 85.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 133.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.90% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 |
| Alpha | -13.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.705 |
| Beta Downside | 0.758 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.36% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.01 |
Description: TWO Two Harbors Investments January 18, 2026
Two Harbors Investment Corp. (NYSE:TWO) is a mortgage REIT that acquires, finances, and services mortgage-related assets through its RoundPoint platform. Its portfolio centers on agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, hybrid loans, and related derivatives, as well as non-agency and non-hedged financial assets. Because it qualifies as a REIT, it must distribute at least 90 % of taxable income to shareholders each year.
As of the most recent quarter (Q4 2024), TWO reported a net asset value (NAV) of roughly $13.2 billion and a trailing-12-month dividend yield near 8.1 %, reflecting the high-interest-rate environment that inflates MSR spreads. The fund’s performance is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy path: a 25 bp rate hike typically compresses MSR cash-flow values by 0.5-1 % while a rate cut can expand them by a similar magnitude. Additionally, the overall health of the U.S. housing market-particularly new-home starts and refinance activity-drives the supply of agency RMBS and thus the fund’s pipeline of new acquisitions.
Given the sector’s reliance on interest-rate volatility and housing-market dynamics, analysts should monitor the Fed’s policy minutes and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly mortgage applications to gauge near-term risk exposures. For a deeper quantitative breakdown of TWO’s risk profile and valuation metrics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analytical dashboard can be a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -49.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -41.28% < 20% (prev -938.8%; Δ 897.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 > 3% & CFO -49.3m > Net Income -49.6m |
| Net Debt (-580.5m) to EBITDA (562.6m): -1.03 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.2m) vs 12m ago 0.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 81.80% > 18% (prev -0.05%; Δ 8184 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.41% > 50% (prev 6.56%; Δ -2.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.24 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 562.6m / Interest Expense TTM 512.5m) |
Altman Z'' -2.47
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 7.39b - Total Current Liabilities 7.60b) / Total Assets 10.86b |
| B: -0.44 (Retained Earnings -4.76b / Total Assets 10.86b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -637.5m / Avg Total Assets 11.87b) |
| D: -0.52 (Book Value of Equity -4.76b / Total Liabilities 9.07b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.47 = D |
What is the price of TWO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.75%, over one month by +6.05%, over three months by +19.57% and over the past year by -2.00%.
Is TWO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TWO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.3 | 11.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.3 | 11.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13.9 | 25.5% |
TWO Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/S = 3.3819
P/B = 1.0521
P/EG = 3.59
Revenue TTM = 523.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -637.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 562.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 372.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.26b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 261.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -580.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 742.7m USD (1.25b + Debt 261.8m - CCE 770.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.24 (Ebit TTM -637.5m / Interest Expense TTM 512.5m)
EV/FCF = -4.16x (Enterprise Value 742.7m / FCF TTM -178.3m)
FCF Yield = -24.01% (FCF TTM -178.3m / Enterprise Value 742.7m)
FCF Margin = -34.06% (FCF TTM -178.3m / Revenue TTM 523.7m)
Net Margin = -9.48% (Net Income TTM -49.6m / Revenue TTM 523.7m)
Gross Margin = 81.80% ((Revenue TTM 523.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 95.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.07 (Enterprise Value 742.7m / Total Assets 10.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 40.26% (Interest Expense 105.4m / Debt 261.8m)
Taxrate = 32.24% (5.58m / 17.3m)
NOPAT = -431.9m (EBIT -637.5m * (1 - 32.24%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 7.39b / Total Current Liabilities 7.60b)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 261.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.79b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.03 (Net Debt -580.5m / EBITDA 562.6m)
Debt / FCF = 3.25 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -580.5m / FCF TTM -178.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.42% (Net Income -49.6m / Total Assets 10.86b)
RoE = -2.50% (Net Income TTM -49.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.99b)
RoCE = -27.03% (EBIT -637.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.99b + L.T.Debt 372.2m))
RoIC = -16.11% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -431.9m / Invested Capital 2.68b)
WACC = 11.76% (E(1.25b)/V(1.51b) * Re(8.51%) + D(261.8m)/V(1.51b) * Rd(40.26%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 8.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.40%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -178.3m)
EPS Correlation: -36.67 | EPS CAGR: -23.79% | SUE: -0.61 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -1.26 | Revenue CAGR: -12.47% | SUE: 2.46 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-0.058 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=-0.215 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+6.8% | Growth Revenue=+30.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.45 | Chg30d=-0.050 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+19.1% | Growth Revenue=+47.9%