(TXO) MorningStar Partners, L.P. - Ratings and Ratios
Oil, Natural Gas, NGL
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 17.12% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 12.67% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 58.67% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.5% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 43.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.82% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.79 |
| Alpha | -29.41 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.420 |
| Beta | 0.477 |
| Beta Downside | 0.629 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.69% |
| Mean DD | 15.92% |
| Median DD | 16.01% |
Description: TXO MorningStar Partners, L.P. October 21, 2025
TXO Partners, L.P. (NYSE: TXO) is a U.S.-based upstream oil and natural-gas firm that acquires, develops, and extracts conventional hydrocarbons in three core North-American basins: the Permian (West Texas & New Mexico), the San Juan (New Mexico & Colorado), and the Williston (Montana & North Dakota). The company, incorporated in 2012 and headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, rebranded from TXO Energy Partners in May 2023.
Key operational metrics (as of Q2 2024) show a 12 % year-over-year increase in proved reserves, now totaling roughly 180 MMboe, driven primarily by recent acreage acquisitions in the Permian’s “Mid-Continent” sweet spot. The firm’s cash-flow generation remains sensitive to WTI crude price trends; a $5 per-barrel swing in WTI typically translates to a ± $30 million change in operating cash flow, reflecting its modest hedging program. Macro-level drivers include the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s forecast of a 2-3 % annual growth in domestic natural-gas demand and ongoing capital-intensity pressures from ESG-related financing constraints.
For a data-rich, third-party perspective on TXO’s valuation dynamics, you may find it worthwhile to explore the analytics platform ValueRay, which aggregates peer-adjusted multiples and scenario-based cash-flow models.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (16.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 21.9m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.11 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.74pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -22.97% (prev 0.35%; Δ -23.31pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 126.2m > Net Income 16.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (265.8m) to EBITDA (124.0m) ratio: 2.14 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.48 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (55.8m) change vs 12m ago 40.12% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 35.26% (prev 27.70%; Δ 7.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 30.47% (prev 28.09%; Δ 2.37pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.16 (EBITDA TTM 124.0m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.23
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -15.92% |
| 3. FCF Margin -40.12% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.37 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.14 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.85)% |
| 7. RoE 2.51% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 35.37% |
| 9. EPS Trend 5.70% |
What is the price of TXO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.52%, over one month by -12.08%, over three months by -12.66% and over the past year by -19.74%.
Is TXO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TXO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19.7 | 66.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19.7 | 66.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.4 | 21.8% |
TXO Fundamental Data Overview December 13, 2025
P/E Trailing = 29.775
P/S = 1.7905
P/B = 0.887
Beta = 0.002
Revenue TTM = 364.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 31.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 124.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 271.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 271.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 265.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 918.3m USD (652.5m + Debt 271.1m - CCE 5.31m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.16 (Ebit TTM 31.4m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m)
FCF Yield = -15.92% (FCF TTM -146.2m / Enterprise Value 918.3m)
FCF Margin = -40.12% (FCF TTM -146.2m / Revenue TTM 364.4m)
Net Margin = 4.62% (Net Income TTM 16.9m / Revenue TTM 364.4m)
Gross Margin = 35.26% ((Revenue TTM 364.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 235.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.55% (prev 27.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.67 (Enterprise Value 918.3m / Total Assets 1.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.62% (Interest Expense 4.39m / Debt 271.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 24.8m (EBIT 31.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.48 (Total Current Assets 76.9m / Total Current Liabilities 160.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 271.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 736.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.14 (Net Debt 265.8m / EBITDA 124.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.82 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 265.8m / FCF TTM -146.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 671.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.22% (Net Income 16.9m / Total Assets 1.38b)
RoE = 2.51% (Net Income TTM 16.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 671.8m)
RoCE = 3.33% (EBIT 31.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 671.8m + L.T.Debt 271.1m))
RoIC = 3.01% (NOPAT 24.8m / Invested Capital 824.2m)
WACC = 5.86% (E(652.5m)/V(923.6m) * Re(7.77%) + D(271.1m)/V(923.6m) * Rd(1.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 34.51%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -146.2m)
EPS Correlation: 5.70 | EPS CAGR: 311.7% | SUE: -1.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 35.37 | Revenue CAGR: 3.27% | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+137.1% | Growth Revenue=+16.1%
Additional Sources for TXO Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle