UNP Stock Analysis: Union Pacific | NYSE

Railroads | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 162.652m USD | 12M Return: 18.5% | US9078181081 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Freight Rail, Intermodal, Coal Transport, Chemicals
Total Rating 66
Safety 85
Buy Signal 0.25
Railroads
Industry Rotation: -6.1
Market Cap: 163B
Avg Turnover: 650M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility21.6%
VaR 5th Pctl3.61%
VaR vs Median1.43%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.68
Rel. Str. IBD62.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group37.5
Character TTM
Beta0.420
Beta Downside0.465
Hurst Exponent0.613
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD17.75%
CAGR/Max DD0.73
CAGR/Mean DD2.12
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of UNP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 2.57, "2021-12": 2.66, "2022-03": 2.57, "2022-06": 2.93, "2022-09": 3.05, "2022-12": 2.67, "2023-03": 2.53, "2023-06": 2.57, "2023-09": 2.51, "2023-12": 2.71, "2024-03": 2.69, "2024-06": 2.74, "2024-09": 2.75, "2024-12": 2.98, "2025-03": 2.7, "2025-06": 3.03, "2025-09": 3.08, "2025-12": 2.86, "2026-03": 2.93, "2026-06": 3.41,
EPS CAGR: 6.72%
EPS Trend: 99.0%
Last SUE: 2.69
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of UNP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 5566, 2021-12: 5733, 2022-03: 5860, 2022-06: 6269, 2022-09: 6566, 2022-12: 6180, 2023-03: 6056, 2023-06: 5963, 2023-09: 5941, 2023-12: 6159, 2024-03: 6031, 2024-06: 6007, 2024-09: 6091, 2024-12: 6121, 2025-03: 6027, 2025-06: 6154, 2025-09: 6244, 2025-12: 6085, 2026-03: 6217, 2026-06: 6864,
Rev. CAGR: 1.40%
Rev. Trend: 83.6%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -1.3% 29
Feb +2.2% 38
Mar -2.2% 21
Apr -0.3% 10
May -1.9% 20
Jun -1.5% 17
Jul +2.8% 31
Aug +0.9% 8
Sep -0.4% 16
Oct -3.6% 12
Nov +7.0% 64
Dec -0.3% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: UNP Union Pacific

Union Pacific Corporation operates one of the largest freight railroad networks in the United States through its wholly owned subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, transporting a diverse range of commodities across its rail system. Its traffic base spans agricultural products (grain, fertilizers, food and refrigerated goods), energy-related cargo (coal, renewables, petroleum, LPGs), industrial inputs (chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals and ores, soda ash, sand), and finished goods including automobiles, automotive parts, and intermodal containerized merchandise. As a Class I freight railroad, the company benefits from significant barriers to entry created by the high cost and scale of rail infrastructure, and intermodal services-where containers are transferred between rail and truck-represent a key growth segment connecting shippers to the broader logistics network. Founded in 1862 and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, Union Pacific is a long-established operator within the North American rail industry.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Intermodal volumes rise with US import demand and consumer spending
  • Operating ratio improvement drives margin expansion and earnings growth
  • Coal volume declines persist amid utility fuel switching to natural gas
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 7.33b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.00 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -0.31% < 20% (prev -9.30%; Δ 8.99% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 10.3b > Net Income 7.33b
Net Debt (29.9b) to EBITDA (13.3b): 2.24 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.99 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (594.0m) vs 12m ago -0.13% < -2%
Gross Margin: 45.53% > 18% (prev 45.68%; Δ -0.16% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 36.36% > 50% (prev 35.57%; Δ 0.78% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b)
Altman Z'' 4.74
A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 5.53b - Total Current Liabilities 5.61b) / Total Assets 71.2b
B: 1.01 (Retained Earnings 71.6b / Total Assets 71.2b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 10.8b / Avg Total Assets 69.9b)
D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 20.7b / Total Liabilities 50.5b)
Altman-Z'' = 4.74 = AA
Beneish M -3.00
DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 2.13b/1.92b, Revenue 25.4b/24.4b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 45.68% / 45.53%)
AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 25.4b / 24.4b)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 7.33b - CFO 10.3b) / TA 71.2b)
Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of UNP shares?

As of September 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 274.15 with a total of 1,838,764 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.09%, over one month by -8.82%, over three months by +1.00% and over the past year by +18.52%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 267.40 (which is 2.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is UNP a buy, sell or hold?

Union Pacific has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.93. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UNP.

  • StrongBuy: 13
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 12
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the UNP price?
Analysts Target Price 329.3 20.1%
Union Pacific (UNP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 163b (163b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 22.1513
P/E Forward = 19.3424
P/S = 6.4011
P/B = 7.8857
P/EG = 2.7237
Revenue TTM = 25.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 29.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 842.0m
Net Debt = 29.9b USD (calculated: Debt 32.0b - CCE 2.11b)
Enterprise Value = 193b USD (163b + Debt 32.0b - CCE 2.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.40 (Ebit TTM 10.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b)
EV/FCF = 29.60x (Enterprise Value 193b / FCF TTM 6.50b)
FCF Yield = 3.38% (FCF TTM 6.50b / Enterprise Value 193b)
FCF Margin = 25.60% (FCF TTM 6.50b / Revenue TTM 25.4b)
Net Margin = 28.85% (Net Income TTM 7.33b / Revenue TTM 25.4b)
Gross Margin = 45.53% ((Revenue TTM 25.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.53% (prev 45.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.70 (Enterprise Value 193b / Total Assets 71.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.01% (Interest Expense 1.28b / Debt 32.0b)
Taxrate = 22.92% (2.18b / 9.51b)
NOPAT = 8.32b (EBIT 10.8b * (1 - 22.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 5.53b / Total Current Liabilities 5.61b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 32.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 20.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.24 (Net Debt 29.9b / EBITDA 13.3b)
Debt / FCF = 4.60 (Net Debt 29.9b / FCF TTM 6.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.49% (Net Income 7.33b / Total Assets 71.2b)
RoE = 38.65% (Net Income TTM 7.33b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.0b)
RoCE = 22.49% (EBIT 10.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.0b + L.T.Debt 29.0b))
RoIC = 12.64% (NOPAT 8.32b / Invested Capital 65.8b)
WACC = 6.74% (E(163b)/V(195b) * Re(7.46%) + D(32.0b)/V(195b) * Rd(4.01%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.18 | Cagr: -1.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.94% ; FCFF base≈6.41b ; Y1≈6.64b ; Y5≈7.50b
[DCF] Fair Price = 144.6 (EV 116b - Net Debt 29.9b = Equity 85.9b / Shares 594.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.03 | EPS CAGR: 6.72% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.61 | Revenue CAGR: 1.40% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.45 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+77% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.06 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+88% | GrowthEPS=+12.0% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.18 | Chg30d=+0.14% | Revisions=+88% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +93% (up=63, down=1)