UNP Stock Analysis: Union Pacific | NYSE
Railroads | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 165.272m USD | 12M Return: 27.7% | US9078181081 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 648M
EPS Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 83.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Union Pacific Corporation operates one of the largest freight railroad networks in the United States through its wholly owned subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, transporting a diverse range of commodities across its rail system. Its traffic base spans agricultural products (grain, fertilizers, food and refrigerated goods), energy-related cargo (coal, renewables, petroleum, LPGs), industrial inputs (chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals and ores, soda ash, sand), and finished goods including automobiles, automotive parts, and intermodal containerized merchandise. As a Class I freight railroad, the company benefits from significant barriers to entry created by the high cost and scale of rail infrastructure, and intermodal services-where containers are transferred between rail and truck-represent a key growth segment connecting shippers to the broader logistics network. Founded in 1862 and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, Union Pacific is a long-established operator within the North American rail industry.
- Intermodal volumes rise with US import demand and consumer spending
- Operating ratio improvement drives margin expansion and earnings growth
- Coal volume declines persist amid utility fuel switching to natural gas
| Net Income: 7.33b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.31% < 20% (prev -9.30%; Δ 8.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 10.3b > Net Income 7.33b |
| Net Debt (29.9b) to EBITDA (13.3b): 2.25 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (594.0m) vs 12m ago -0.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.53% > 18% (prev 45.68%; Δ -0.16% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 36.36% > 50% (prev 35.57%; Δ 0.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 5.53b - Total Current Liabilities 5.61b) / Total Assets 71.2b |
| B: 1.01 (Retained Earnings 71.6b / Total Assets 71.2b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 10.8b / Avg Total Assets 69.9b) |
| D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 20.7b / Total Liabilities 50.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.74 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 2.13b/1.92b, Revenue 25.4b/24.4b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 45.68% / 45.53%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 25.4b / 24.4b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 7.33b - CFO 10.3b) / TA 71.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 282.36 with a total of 1,358,909 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.08%, over one month by -0.95%, over three months by -1.89% and over the past year by +27.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 272.60 (which is 3.5% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Union Pacific has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.28. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UNP.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 328.2 | 16.2% |
P/E Trailing = 22.5446
P/E Forward = 19.3424
P/S = 6.5042
P/B = 7.8857
P/EG = 2.7237
Revenue TTM = 25.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 29.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 842.0m
Net Debt = 29.9b USD (calculated: Debt 32.0b - CCE 2.11b)
Enterprise Value = 195b USD (165b + Debt 32.0b - CCE 2.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.40 (Ebit TTM 10.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b)
EV/FCF = 30.01x (Enterprise Value 195b / FCF TTM 6.50b)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 6.50b / Enterprise Value 195b)
FCF Margin = 25.60% (FCF TTM 6.50b / Revenue TTM 25.4b)
Net Margin = 28.85% (Net Income TTM 7.33b / Revenue TTM 25.4b)
Gross Margin = 45.53% ((Revenue TTM 25.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.53% (prev 45.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.74 (Enterprise Value 195b / Total Assets 71.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.01% (Interest Expense 1.28b / Debt 32.0b)
Taxrate = 22.92% (2.18b / 9.51b)
NOPAT = 8.32b (EBIT 10.8b * (1 - 22.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 5.53b / Total Current Liabilities 5.61b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 32.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 20.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.25 (Net Debt 29.9b / EBITDA 13.3b)
Debt / FCF = 4.60 (Net Debt 29.9b / FCF TTM 6.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.49% (Net Income 7.33b / Total Assets 71.2b)
RoE = 38.65% (Net Income TTM 7.33b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.0b)
RoCE = 22.49% (EBIT 10.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.0b + L.T.Debt 29.0b))
RoIC = 12.64% (NOPAT 8.32b / Invested Capital 65.8b)
WACC = 6.76% (E(165b)/V(197b) * Re(7.47%) + D(32.0b)/V(197b) * Rd(4.01%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.18 | Cagr: -1.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.94% ; FCFF base≈6.41b ; Y1≈6.64b ; Y5≈7.50b
[DCF] Fair Price = 144.6 (EV 116b - Net Debt 29.9b = Equity 85.9b / Shares 594.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.03 | EPS CAGR: 6.72% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.61 | Revenue CAGR: 1.40% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.46 | Chg30d=+0.41% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.07 | Chg30d=+0.17% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+12.1% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.21 | Chg30d=+0.42% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+8.7% | GrowthRev=+4.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=8, down=3)