(VEL) Velocity Financial - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US92262D1019
Stock: Loans, Securitizations, Multi-Family, Mixed-Use, Commercial
Total Rating 44
Risk 72
Buy Signal -0.25
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.32 |
| Alpha | 2.73 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.345 |
| Beta Downside | 0.363 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.60% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.04 |
Description: VEL Velocity Financial December 24, 2025
Velocity Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is a U.S.-based real-estate finance firm that originates, securitizes, and services a diversified loan portfolio secured by residential rental properties (1-4 units), mixed-use assets, multifamily, and commercial real-estate. Its distribution model relies on independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships, and the company has operated since 2004 from its headquarters in Westlake Village, California.
Key operating metrics (as of the latest FY2023 filing) include a loan origination volume of roughly $1.2 billion, a weighted-average loan-to-value (LTV) of 71%, and a net interest margin of 3.4%. The business is sensitive to macro-economic drivers such as Federal Reserve policy (interest-rate levels) and the health of the U.S. rental market, which has been supported by a persistent housing supply shortage and elevated demand for multifamily units.
For a deeper, data-driven look at VEL’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform provides a granular, model-backed analysis worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 90.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -59.68% < 20% (prev -91.77%; Δ 32.08% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 55.9m > Net Income 90.4m |
| Net Debt (-99.0m) to EBITDA (279.3m): -0.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (38.8m) vs 12m ago 8.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.25% > 18% (prev 0.54%; Δ 5071 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.58% > 50% (prev 8.37%; Δ 1.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.84 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 279.3m / Interest Expense TTM 332.7m) |
Altman Z'' 0.15
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 148.3m - Total Current Liabilities 495.9m) / Total Assets 6.96b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 267.6m / Total Assets 6.96b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 278.2m / Avg Total Assets 6.08b) |
| D: 0.04 (Book Value of Equity 265.1m / Total Liabilities 6.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.15 = B |
Beneish M -3.31
| DSRI: 0.28 (Receivables 49.3m/130.9m, Revenue 582.5m/435.4m) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 51.25% / 54.05%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 1.34 (Revenue 582.5m / 435.4m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 90.4m - CFO 55.9m) / TA 6.96b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.31 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of VEL shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 20.49 with a total of 130,089 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.99%, over one month by +10.04%, over three months by +9.34% and over the past year by +9.57%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.99%, over one month by +10.04%, over three months by +9.34% and over the past year by +9.57%.
Is VEL a buy, sell or hold?
Velocity Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold VEL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VEL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21.7 | 5.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 21.7 | 5.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 24 | 17% |
VEL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 8.3843
P/S = 3.4412
P/B = 1.2512
Revenue TTM = 582.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 278.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 279.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 332.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -99.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.55b USD (789.3m + Debt 4.86b - CCE 99.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.84 (Ebit TTM 278.2m / Interest Expense TTM 332.7m)
EV/FCF = 99.99x (Enterprise Value 5.55b / FCF TTM 55.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.00% (FCF TTM 55.5m / Enterprise Value 5.55b)
FCF Margin = 9.53% (FCF TTM 55.5m / Revenue TTM 582.5m)
Net Margin = 15.51% (Net Income TTM 90.4m / Revenue TTM 582.5m)
Gross Margin = 51.25% ((Revenue TTM 582.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 283.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.62% (prev 46.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 5.55b / Total Assets 6.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 95.0m / Debt 4.86b)
Taxrate = 28.16% (9.96m / 35.4m)
NOPAT = 199.9m (EBIT 278.2m * (1 - 28.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.30 (Total Current Assets 148.3m / Total Current Liabilities 495.9m)
Debt / Equity = 7.66 (Debt 4.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 634.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.35 (Net Debt -99.0m / EBITDA 279.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.78 (Net Debt -99.0m / FCF TTM 55.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 578.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.49% (Net Income 90.4m / Total Assets 6.96b)
RoE = 15.63% (Net Income TTM 90.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 578.1m)
RoCE = 4.35% (EBIT 278.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 578.1m + L.T.Debt 5.82b))
RoIC = 3.29% (NOPAT 199.9m / Invested Capital 6.07b)
WACC = 2.21% (E(789.3m)/V(5.65b) * Re(7.19%) + D(4.86b)/V(5.65b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.21% ; FCFF base≈43.0m ; Y1≈38.7m ; Y5≈33.1m
Fair Price DCF = 28.28 (EV 1.00b - Net Debt -99.0m = Equity 1.10b / Shares 38.9m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -12.46% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 32.65 | EPS CAGR: -45.40% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.56 | Revenue CAGR: 39.46% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.57 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-5.1% | Growth Revenue=+26.3%
P/S = 3.4412
P/B = 1.2512
Revenue TTM = 582.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 278.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 279.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 332.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -99.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.55b USD (789.3m + Debt 4.86b - CCE 99.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.84 (Ebit TTM 278.2m / Interest Expense TTM 332.7m)
EV/FCF = 99.99x (Enterprise Value 5.55b / FCF TTM 55.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.00% (FCF TTM 55.5m / Enterprise Value 5.55b)
FCF Margin = 9.53% (FCF TTM 55.5m / Revenue TTM 582.5m)
Net Margin = 15.51% (Net Income TTM 90.4m / Revenue TTM 582.5m)
Gross Margin = 51.25% ((Revenue TTM 582.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 283.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.62% (prev 46.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 5.55b / Total Assets 6.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 95.0m / Debt 4.86b)
Taxrate = 28.16% (9.96m / 35.4m)
NOPAT = 199.9m (EBIT 278.2m * (1 - 28.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.30 (Total Current Assets 148.3m / Total Current Liabilities 495.9m)
Debt / Equity = 7.66 (Debt 4.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 634.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.35 (Net Debt -99.0m / EBITDA 279.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.78 (Net Debt -99.0m / FCF TTM 55.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 578.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.49% (Net Income 90.4m / Total Assets 6.96b)
RoE = 15.63% (Net Income TTM 90.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 578.1m)
RoCE = 4.35% (EBIT 278.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 578.1m + L.T.Debt 5.82b))
RoIC = 3.29% (NOPAT 199.9m / Invested Capital 6.07b)
WACC = 2.21% (E(789.3m)/V(5.65b) * Re(7.19%) + D(4.86b)/V(5.65b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.21% ; FCFF base≈43.0m ; Y1≈38.7m ; Y5≈33.1m
Fair Price DCF = 28.28 (EV 1.00b - Net Debt -99.0m = Equity 1.10b / Shares 38.9m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -12.46% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 32.65 | EPS CAGR: -45.40% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.56 | Revenue CAGR: 39.46% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.57 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-5.1% | Growth Revenue=+26.3%