(VLRS) Volaris - Overview
Stock: Passenger Flights, Cargo Flights, Mail Flights, Loyalty Program
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 44.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.31% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 |
| Alpha | 16.88 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.051 |
| Beta Downside | 1.044 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 76.05% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.03 |
Description: VLRS Volaris December 26, 2025
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (ticker VLRS) operates a low-cost airline network in Mexico and internationally through its subsidiary Concesionaria Vuela. As of the latest filing, the carrier runs roughly 550 flights per day across 44 Mexican cities, 23 U.S. destinations, 4 in Central America and 2 in South America, and it also provides ancillary services such as travel agency operations, aircraft financing, and a loyalty program. The fleet consists of 141 leased aircraft and 18 spare engines, reflecting a business model that relies heavily on operating leases to preserve cash.
Key performance indicators from the 2023-2024 period show a passenger load factor consistently above 84%, positioning VLRS near the top quartile of the Mexican airline sector. Revenue grew 12% year-over-year to approximately $2.4 billion, driven by robust domestic demand and a rebound in cross-border leisure travel as U.S. consumer confidence improved. However, the airline’s cost structure remains sensitive to fuel price swings; its cost-per-available-seat-mile (CASM) rose 4% in 2023 when Brent crude averaged $85 /barrel. The company’s balance sheet holds roughly $600 million in cash and short-term investments, with net debt at 0.9× equity, indicating moderate leverage but limited headroom for large fleet expansion without additional financing.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of VLRS’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a free, data-rich dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -62.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.90 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -22.07% < 20% (prev -14.72%; Δ -7.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 755.3m > Net Income -62.0m |
| Net Debt (3.09b) to EBITDA (567.0m): 5.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (116.3m) vs 12m ago 0.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.81% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 1262 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.42% > 50% (prev 58.38%; Δ -4.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.61 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 567.0m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0m) |
Altman Z'' -0.60
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 2.01b) / Total Assets 5.70b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -130.0m / Total Assets 5.70b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 196.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.60b) |
| D: -0.00 (Book Value of Equity -11.0m / Total Liabilities 5.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.60 = B |
Beneish M -2.47
| DSRI: 1.30 (Receivables 207.0m/171.0m, Revenue 2.99b/3.21b) |
| GMI: 1.50 (GM 12.81% / 19.22%) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 2.99b / 3.21b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -62.0m - CFO 755.3m) / TA 5.70b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.47 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of VLRS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.40%, over one month by +13.10%, over three months by +55.27% and over the past year by +33.29%.
Is VLRS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VLRS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.2 | -2.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10.2 | -2.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12 | 14.6% |
VLRS Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 0.3988
P/B = 4.2715
P/EG = 1.69
Revenue TTM = 2.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 196.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 567.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 452.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 749.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.87b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.09b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.27b USD (1.19b + Debt 3.87b - CCE 785.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.61 (Ebit TTM 196.0m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.05x (Enterprise Value 4.27b / FCF TTM 531.0m)
FCF Yield = 12.43% (FCF TTM 531.0m / Enterprise Value 4.27b)
FCF Margin = 17.76% (FCF TTM 531.0m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Net Margin = -2.07% (Net Income TTM -62.0m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Gross Margin = 12.81% ((Revenue TTM 2.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.82% (prev 1.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 4.27b / Total Assets 5.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.97% (Interest Expense 76.0m / Debt 3.87b)
Taxrate = 33.33% (3.00m / 9.00m)
NOPAT = 130.7m (EBIT 196.0m * (1 - 33.33%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 2.01b)
Debt / Equity = 14.75 (Debt 3.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 262.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.46 (Net Debt 3.09b / EBITDA 567.0m)
Debt / FCF = 5.83 (Net Debt 3.09b / FCF TTM 531.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 298.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.11% (Net Income -62.0m / Total Assets 5.70b)
RoE = -20.74% (Net Income TTM -62.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 298.9m)
RoCE = 26.10% (EBIT 196.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 298.9m + L.T.Debt 452.0m))
RoIC = 12.13% (NOPAT 130.7m / Invested Capital 1.08b)
WACC = 3.31% (E(1.19b)/V(5.06b) * Re(9.79%) + D(3.87b)/V(5.06b) * Rd(1.97%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 9.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.13%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.02% ; FCFF base≈718.6m ; Y1≈772.0m ; Y5≈943.5m
Fair Price DCF = 216.1 (EV 27.92b - Net Debt 3.09b = Equity 24.83b / Shares 114.9m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 8.36% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 15.21 | EPS CAGR: 29.80% | SUE: -1.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 32.29 | Revenue CAGR: 3.79% | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.21 | Chg30d=-0.029 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.021 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+110.0% | Growth Revenue=+11.1%