(VST) Vistra Energy - Overview
Stock: Electricity, Natural Gas, Wholesale Energy, Commodity Risk
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.54% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.73% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 55.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 59.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.48% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 |
| Alpha | -37.99 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.869 |
| Beta Downside | 2.129 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.80% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.85 |
Description: VST Vistra Energy January 27, 2026
Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated U.S. retail electricity and power-generation firm operating through five geographic segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. It serves roughly 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers and owns about 41 GW of generation capacity spanning natural-gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery-storage assets.
In its most recent quarter (Q3 2025), Vistra reported adjusted EBITDA of **$2.1 billion**, a **12 % year-over-year increase**, driven by higher wholesale power margins and a modest uptick in retail customer growth (≈0.8 % QoQ). The company’s generation mix now stands at **≈45 % natural-gas, 30 % nuclear, 15 % solar, 5 % battery storage, and 5 % coal**, reflecting its ongoing transition toward lower-carbon resources.
Key economic drivers for Vistra include the **U.S. natural-gas price spread**, which remains volatile but supportive of its gas-fired fleet; the **federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) extensions** that enhance the economics of its solar and storage projects; and **regional capacity market reforms**-particularly in Texas and the PJM East market-that affect revenue certainty for its dispatchable assets.
Sector-wide, the independent power producer (IPP) landscape is being reshaped by accelerating renewable integration, tighter emissions regulations, and the growing importance of ancillary services from battery storage, all of which influence Vistra’s strategic allocation of capital.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.21% < 20% (prev 5.65%; Δ -5.86% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 3.99b > Net Income 1.15b |
| Net Debt (16.90b) to EBITDA (5.15b): 3.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.8m) vs 12m ago -2.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.61% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 3733 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 57.32% > 50% (prev 40.68%; Δ 16.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.72 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 5.15b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b) |
Altman Z'' 0.35
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 8.38b - Total Current Liabilities 8.43b) / Total Assets 38.02b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -107.0m / Total Assets 38.02b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 2.12b / Avg Total Assets 37.95b) |
| D: -0.00 (Book Value of Equity -82.0m / Total Liabilities 32.80b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.35 = B |
Beneish M -3.18
| DSRI: 0.75 (Receivables 2.33b/2.20b, Revenue 21.75b/15.41b) |
| GMI: 0.75 (GM 37.61% / 28.24%) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.41 (Revenue 21.75b / 15.41b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 1.15b - CFO 3.99b) / TA 38.02b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of VST shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.49%, over one month by -11.73%, over three months by -18.83% and over the past year by -11.43%.
Is VST a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 230.2 | 53.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 230.2 | 53.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 241.5 | 61.4% |
VST Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.9031
P/S = 2.8198
P/B = 17.6625
P/EG = 1.1823
Revenue TTM = 21.75b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.76b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.46b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.90b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 65.38b USD (48.48b + Debt 17.50b - CCE 602.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.72 (Ebit TTM 2.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b)
EV/FCF = 39.74x (Enterprise Value 65.38b / FCF TTM 1.65b)
FCF Yield = 2.52% (FCF TTM 1.65b / Enterprise Value 65.38b)
FCF Margin = 7.56% (FCF TTM 1.65b / Revenue TTM 21.75b)
Net Margin = 5.30% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 21.75b)
Gross Margin = 37.61% ((Revenue TTM 21.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.89% (prev 21.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.72 (Enterprise Value 65.38b / Total Assets 38.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.63% (Interest Expense 286.0m / Debt 17.50b)
Taxrate = 23.83% (204.0m / 856.0m)
NOPAT = 1.61b (EBIT 2.12b * (1 - 23.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 8.38b / Total Current Liabilities 8.43b)
Debt / Equity = 3.36 (Debt 17.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.28 (Net Debt 16.90b / EBITDA 5.15b)
Debt / FCF = 10.27 (Net Debt 16.90b / FCF TTM 1.65b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.04% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 38.02b)
RoE = 22.56% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.11b)
RoCE = 10.14% (EBIT 2.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.11b + L.T.Debt 15.76b))
RoIC = 8.06% (NOPAT 1.61b / Invested Capital 19.98b)
WACC = 9.73% (E(48.48b)/V(65.98b) * Re(12.80%) + D(17.50b)/V(65.98b) * Rd(1.63%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 12.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 62.81% ; FCFF base≈1.75b ; Y1≈1.15b ; Y5≈523.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.88b - Net Debt 16.90b = -9.02b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 30.91 | EPS CAGR: 4.20% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 34.58 | Revenue CAGR: 9.84% | SUE: -1.21 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=+0.042 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.83 | Chg30d=+0.037 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+81.1% | Growth Revenue=+15.2%