(VVV) Valvoline - Overview
Stock: Services, Lubricants, Fluids
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.14 |
| Alpha | -9.69 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.647 |
| Beta Downside | 0.475 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.35% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.06 |
Description: VVV Valvoline January 09, 2026
Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV) operates a network of retail and franchised service centers across the United States and Canada, delivering automotive preventive-maintenance services such as oil changes, battery, bulb and wiper replacements, tire rotations, and related repairs. Founded in 1866 and headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky, the firm’s core model blends company-owned locations with franchise partnerships to capture consumer spend on routine vehicle upkeep.
Recent financial disclosures (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly $2.0 billion, with same-store sales growing about 4 % year-over-year and an operating margin near 6 %. The automotive aftermarket-a key sector driver-is projected to expand at a 3 % CAGR through 2027, buoyed by an aging vehicle fleet (average age ≈ 12 years) and sustained demand for cost-effective maintenance amid volatile fuel prices. Valvoline’s franchise-heavy footprint gives it a lower capital intensity than fully owned competitors, but also subjects earnings to franchisee performance risk.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Valvoline’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analytics platform ValueRay, which aggregates real-time metrics and scenario modeling to help assess the stock’s risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 86.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.18% < 20% (prev -5.48%; Δ -0.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 320.8m > Net Income 86.3m |
| Net Debt (1.59b) to EBITDA (189.3m): 8.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.70 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (127.2m) vs 12m ago -1.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.58% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 3819 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 61.12% > 50% (prev 70.64%; Δ -9.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.80 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 189.3m / Interest Expense TTM 79.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.62
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 255.2m - Total Current Liabilities 363.8m) / Total Assets 3.40b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 240.8m / Total Assets 3.40b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 221.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.88b) |
| D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 240.8m / Total Liabilities 3.09b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.62 = B |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 73.8m/84.7m, Revenue 1.76b/1.66b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 38.58% / 38.37%) |
| AQI: 1.16 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 1.76b / 1.66b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 86.3m - CFO 320.8m) / TA 3.40b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of VVV shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +14.70%, over one month by +23.70%, over three months by +19.94% and over the past year by -5.18%.
Is VVV a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VVV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 40.5 | 8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 40.5 | 8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 37.7 | 0.5% |
VVV Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.0084
P/S = 2.6625
P/B = 14.7263
P/EG = 1.1037
Revenue TTM = 1.76b USD
EBIT TTM = 221.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 189.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 31.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 1.59b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.28b USD (4.68b + Debt 1.67b - CCE 69.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.80 (Ebit TTM 221.1m / Interest Expense TTM 79.0m)
EV/FCF = 108.6x (Enterprise Value 6.28b / FCF TTM 57.8m)
FCF Yield = 0.92% (FCF TTM 57.8m / Enterprise Value 6.28b)
FCF Margin = 3.29% (FCF TTM 57.8m / Revenue TTM 1.76b)
Net Margin = 4.91% (Net Income TTM 86.3m / Revenue TTM 1.76b)
Gross Margin = 38.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.76b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.35% (prev 39.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.85 (Enterprise Value 6.28b / Total Assets 3.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.53% (Interest Expense 25.5m / Debt 1.67b)
Taxrate = 26.51% (77.5m / 292.3m)
NOPAT = 162.5m (EBIT 221.1m * (1 - 26.51%))
Current Ratio = 0.70 (Total Current Assets 255.2m / Total Current Liabilities 363.8m)
Debt / Equity = 5.42 (Debt 1.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 307.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.43 (Net Debt 1.59b / EBITDA 189.3m)
Debt / FCF = 27.59 (Net Debt 1.59b / FCF TTM 57.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 302.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.00% (Net Income 86.3m / Total Assets 3.40b)
RoE = 28.57% (Net Income TTM 86.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 302.1m)
RoCE = 11.42% (EBIT 221.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 302.1m + L.T.Debt 1.63b))
RoIC = 10.65% (NOPAT 162.5m / Invested Capital 1.53b)
WACC = 6.41% (E(4.68b)/V(6.35b) * Re(8.30%) + D(1.67b)/V(6.35b) * Rd(1.53%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.90%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.04% ; FCFF base≈55.0m ; Y1≈36.1m ; Y5≈16.5m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 452.5m - Net Debt 1.59b = -1.14b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 11.69 | EPS CAGR: -6.71% | SUE: 0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 13.79 | Revenue CAGR: 12.59% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=+0.027 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+6.6% | Growth Revenue=+19.6%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=+0.026 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+18.3% | Growth Revenue=+10.2%