(WCN) Waste Connections - Overview
Stock: Collection, Disposal, Recycling, Transfer, E&P
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.71% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.36% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.26% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 34.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 17.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.90% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.68 |
| Alpha | -16.76 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.262 |
| Beta Downside | 0.302 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 18.01% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.48 |
Description: WCN Waste Connections January 28, 2026
Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE: WCN) is a North-American provider of non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource-recovery services, serving residential, commercial, municipal, industrial and oil-and-gas (E&P) customers across the United States and Canada.
Key operating segments include: (1) residential-commercial collection and landfill disposal; (2) recycling of compost, paper, plastics, glass and metals; (3) intermodal rail-haul services in the Pacific Northwest; and (4) specialized E&P waste treatment and disposal (drilling fluids, flowback water, contaminated soils, etc.). The firm also offers equipment leasing to augment cash-flow stability.
Recent performance metrics (as of Q4 2023): • Revenue of $3.1 billion, up 5.2% YoY, driven primarily by a 7% increase in solid-waste volume and a 4% rise in recycling tonnage. • EBITDA margin of 28.6%, reflecting cost-efficiencies from its integrated transfer-station network. • Adjusted free cash flow of $420 million, supporting a dividend yield of ~3.2% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.9×.
Sector drivers that materially affect WCN’s outlook: • U.S. and Canadian population growth (~0.8% p.a.) and urbanization raise residential waste generation rates. • Tighter environmental regulations (e.g., stricter landfill methane capture rules and expanded recycling mandates) create demand for compliant disposal and recycling capacity. • Continued activity in the North-American oil & gas sector-U.S. shale production grew 2.5% YoY in 2023-supports the E&P waste-treatment business line.
Given the company’s diversified service mix and solid cash-generation, a deeper dive into its valuation assumptions on ValueRay could help clarify the risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 622.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.60 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.31% < 20% (prev -4.59%; Δ -2.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 2.43b > Net Income 622.1m |
| Net Debt (8.83b) to EBITDA (2.51b): 3.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (257.6m) vs 12m ago -0.45% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.10% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 4168 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 45.77% > 50% (prev 43.27%; Δ 2.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.97 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.51b / Interest Expense TTM 320.5m) |
Altman Z'' 1.63
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.40b - Total Current Liabilities 2.09b) / Total Assets 20.78b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 5.03b / Total Assets 20.78b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.27b / Avg Total Assets 20.44b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 7.74b / Total Liabilities 12.69b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.63 = BB |
Beneish M -3.06
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 1.07b/990.9m, Revenue 9.35b/8.69b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 42.10% / 41.78%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 9.35b / 8.69b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 622.1m - CFO 2.43b) / TA 20.78b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of WCN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.95%, over one month by -2.93%, over three months by +2.35% and over the past year by -9.97%.
Is WCN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the WCN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 204.3 | 20.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 204.3 | 20.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 178.3 | 5.4% |
WCN Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.322
P/S = 4.6206
P/B = 5.3176
P/EG = 1.6472
Revenue TTM = 9.35b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.27b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.51b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.62b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.82m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.94b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.83b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 52.05b USD (43.22b + Debt 8.94b - CCE 117.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.97 (Ebit TTM 1.27b / Interest Expense TTM 320.5m)
EV/FCF = 25.65x (Enterprise Value 52.05b / FCF TTM 2.03b)
FCF Yield = 3.90% (FCF TTM 2.03b / Enterprise Value 52.05b)
FCF Margin = 21.70% (FCF TTM 2.03b / Revenue TTM 9.35b)
Net Margin = 6.65% (Net Income TTM 622.1m / Revenue TTM 9.35b)
Gross Margin = 42.10% ((Revenue TTM 9.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.42b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.77% (prev 42.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.50 (Enterprise Value 52.05b / Total Assets 20.78b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.94% (Interest Expense 84.4m / Debt 8.94b)
Taxrate = 23.62% (88.5m / 374.8m)
NOPAT = 971.2m (EBIT 1.27b * (1 - 23.62%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 1.40b / Total Current Liabilities 2.09b)
Debt / Equity = 1.10 (Debt 8.94b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.52 (Net Debt 8.83b / EBITDA 2.51b)
Debt / FCF = 4.35 (Net Debt 8.83b / FCF TTM 2.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.04% (Net Income 622.1m / Total Assets 20.78b)
RoE = 7.70% (Net Income TTM 622.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 8.08b)
RoCE = 7.61% (EBIT 1.27b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.08b + L.T.Debt 8.62b))
RoIC = 5.91% (NOPAT 971.2m / Invested Capital 16.44b)
WACC = 5.82% (E(43.22b)/V(52.16b) * Re(6.88%) + D(8.94b)/V(52.16b) * Rd(0.94%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.14%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.36% ; FCFF base≈1.71b ; Y1≈1.91b ; Y5≈2.52b
Fair Price DCF = 255.9 (EV 74.35b - Net Debt 8.83b = Equity 65.52b / Shares 256.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 13.45% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -7.89 | EPS CAGR: -43.34% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.00 | Revenue CAGR: 11.68% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=-0.026 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=15
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.62 | Chg30d=-0.038 | Revisions Net=-10 | Growth EPS=+9.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.4%