XPEV Stock Analysis: Xpeng | NYSE
Auto Manufacturers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.512m USD | 12M Return: -25.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 103M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XPeng Inc. is a Chinese manufacturer of smart electric vehicles founded in 2015 and headquartered in Guangzhou. The companys vehicle lineup spans multiple body styles and segments, including sedans (P7, P7i, Next P7, P7+), SUVs (G9, G7, G6), a large MPV (X9), and an electric hatchback coupe (MONA M03). Beyond vehicles, XPeng develops proprietary technology such as the XOS Tianji in-car operating system, powertrain components, and the SEPA 2.0 electric platform architecture. The company also operates supporting services including supercharging, maintenance, technical support, second-hand vehicle sales, and auto financing referral.
As a major player in Chinas EV market-the largest in the world-XPeng competes alongside other domestic smart EV makers such as NIO and Li Auto, as well as traditional automakers transitioning to electric. The companys business model extends beyond vehicle hardware by integrating in-house software, charging infrastructure, and recurring service revenue streams, which is increasingly common among next-generation EV manufacturers seeking to differentiate through smart cockpit features, advanced driver-assistance systems, and vertically integrated technology platforms.
- China EV price war pressures margins as BYD and Tesla cut prices
- MONA M03 mass-market model accelerates delivery volume growth
- EU tariffs on Chinese EVs threaten export expansion plans
| Net Income: -2.25b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.93% < 20% (prev 18.12%; Δ -8.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 8.26b > Net Income -2.25b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (477.6m) vs 12m ago -49.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.87% > 18% (prev 14.88%; Δ 4.98% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.70% > 50% (prev 56.39%; Δ 21.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM -4.69b / Interest Expense TTM 413.9m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 60.4b - Total Current Liabilities 53.1b) / Total Assets 100b |
| B: -0.44 (Retained Earnings -44.4b / Total Assets 100b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -4.69b / Avg Total Assets 94.7b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 28.4b / Total Liabilities 72.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.88 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.65 (Receivables 4.40b/4.62b, Revenue 73.6b/50.1b) |
| GMI: 0.75 (GM 14.88% / 19.87%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.47 (Revenue 73.6b / 50.1b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -2.25b - CFO 8.26b) / TA 100b) |
| Beneish M = -3.29 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.03 with a total of 2,919,895 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.38%, over one month by -12.31%, over three months by -25.20% and over the past year by -25.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.20 (which is 6.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Xpeng has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.21. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPEV.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22.5 | 72.6% |
Market Cap CNY = 85.0b (12.5b USD * 6.7929 USD.CNY)
P/E Forward = 69.9301
P/S = 0.1692
P/B = 3.1076
Revenue TTM = 73.6b CNY
EBIT TTM = -4.69b CNY
EBITDA TTM = -1.70b CNY
Long Term Debt = 9.00b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 25.8b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 48.5b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.12b
Net Debt = 11.4b CNY (calculated: Debt 48.5b - CCE 37.1b)
Enterprise Value = 96.3b CNY (85.0b + Debt 48.5b - CCE 37.1b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.34 (Ebit TTM -4.69b / Interest Expense TTM 413.9m)
EV/FCF = 19.62x (Enterprise Value 96.3b / FCF TTM 4.91b)
FCF Yield = 5.10% (FCF TTM 4.91b / Enterprise Value 96.3b)
FCF Margin = 6.68% (FCF TTM 4.91b / Revenue TTM 73.6b)
Net Margin = -3.06% (Net Income TTM -2.25b / Revenue TTM 73.6b)
Gross Margin = 19.87% ((Revenue TTM 73.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 58.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.58% (prev 21.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 96.3b / Total Assets 100b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.85% (Interest Expense 413.9m / Debt 48.5b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -3.71b (EBIT -4.69b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.14 (Total Current Assets 60.4b / Total Current Liabilities 53.1b)
Debt / Equity = 1.71 (Debt 48.5b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 28.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.66 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 11.4b / EBITDA -1.70b)
Debt / FCF = 2.31 (Net Debt 11.4b / FCF TTM 4.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 29.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.38% (Net Income -2.25b / Total Assets 100b)
RoE = -7.57% (Net Income TTM -2.25b / Total Stockholder Equity 29.8b)
RoCE = -12.10% (EBIT -4.69b / Capital Employed (Equity 29.8b + L.T.Debt 9.00b))
RoIC = -5.34% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -3.71b / Invested Capital 69.4b)
WACC = 6.54% (E(85.0b)/V(133b) * Re(9.89%) + D(48.5b)/V(133b) * Rd(0.85%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -49.44 | Cagr: -45.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈4.91b ; Y1≈4.93b ; Y5≈5.22b
[DCF] Fair Price = 89.36 (EV 81.3b - Net Debt 11.4b = Equity 69.9b / Shares 782.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.62 | Revenue CAGR: 62.07% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.59 | Chg30d=+26.99% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.22 | Chg30d=+35.29% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.75 | Chg30d=-893.75% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-264.6% | GrowthRev=+20.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.90 | Chg30d=-17.18% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+322.9% | GrowthRev=+27.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=3, down=6)