XPEV Stock Analysis: Xpeng | NYSE
Auto Manufacturers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.838m USD | 12M Return: -44.8% | US98422D1054 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 80.1M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 97.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XPeng Inc. is a Chinese manufacturer of smart electric vehicles founded in 2015 and headquartered in Guangzhou. The companys vehicle lineup spans multiple body styles and segments, including sedans (P7, P7i, Next P7, P7+), SUVs (G9, G7, G6), a large MPV (X9), and an electric hatchback coupe (MONA M03). Beyond vehicles, XPeng develops proprietary technology such as the XOS Tianji in-car operating system, powertrain components, and the SEPA 2.0 electric platform architecture. The company also operates supporting services including supercharging, maintenance, technical support, second-hand vehicle sales, and auto financing referral.
As a major player in Chinas EV market-the largest in the world-XPeng competes alongside other domestic smart EV makers such as NIO and Li Auto, as well as traditional automakers transitioning to electric. The companys business model extends beyond vehicle hardware by integrating in-house software, charging infrastructure, and recurring service revenue streams, which is increasingly common among next-generation EV manufacturers seeking to differentiate through smart cockpit features, advanced driver-assistance systems, and vertically integrated technology platforms.
- China EV price war pressures margins as BYD and Tesla cut prices
- MONA M03 mass-market model accelerates delivery volume growth
- EU tariffs on Chinese EVs threaten export expansion plans
| Net Income: -3.11b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.27% < 20% (prev 11.29%; Δ -3.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 8.26b > Net Income -3.11b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (478.2m) vs 12m ago -49.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.70% > 18% (prev 15.75%; Δ 4.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.27% > 50% (prev 65.23%; Δ 12.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -10.98 > 6 (EBIT TTM -5.08b / Interest Expense TTM 462.9m) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 61.5b - Total Current Liabilities 55.3b) / Total Assets 102b |
| B: -0.45 (Retained Earnings -45.9b / Total Assets 102b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -5.08b / Avg Total Assets 97.0b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 27.0b / Total Liabilities 74.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.04 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 5.04b/4.49b, Revenue 75.0b/60.3b) |
| GMI: 0.76 (GM 15.75% / 20.70%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 75.0b / 60.3b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -3.11b - CFO 8.26b) / TA 102b) |
| Beneish M = -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.95 with a total of 5,019,226 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.03%, over one month by -9.13%, over three months by -34.86% and over the past year by -44.81%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.30 (which is 5.9% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Xpeng has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.21. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPEV.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.6 | 87.8% |
Market Cap CNY = 72.8b (10.8b USD * 6.7186 USD.CNY)
P/E Forward = 69.9301
P/S = 0.1437
P/B = 2.7881
Revenue TTM = 75.0b CNY
EBIT TTM = -5.08b CNY
EBITDA TTM = -2.09b CNY
Long Term Debt = 6.76b CNY (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 25.2b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 48.0b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.12b
Net Debt = 16.3b CNY (calculated: Debt 48.0b - CCE 31.7b)
Enterprise Value = 89.1b CNY (72.8b + Debt 48.0b - CCE 31.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -10.98 (Ebit TTM -5.08b / Interest Expense TTM 462.9m)
EV/FCF = 18.14x (Enterprise Value 89.1b / FCF TTM 4.91b)
FCF Yield = 5.51% (FCF TTM 4.91b / Enterprise Value 89.1b)
FCF Margin = 6.55% (FCF TTM 4.91b / Revenue TTM 75.0b)
Net Margin = -4.15% (Net Income TTM -3.11b / Revenue TTM 75.0b)
Gross Margin = 20.70% ((Revenue TTM 75.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 59.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.68% (prev 20.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 89.1b / Total Assets 102b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 462.9m / Debt 48.0b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -4.01b (EBIT -5.08b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.11 (Total Current Assets 61.5b / Total Current Liabilities 55.3b)
Debt / Equity = 1.78 (Debt 48.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 27.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = -7.78 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 16.3b / EBITDA -2.09b)
Debt / FCF = 3.32 (Net Debt 16.3b / FCF TTM 4.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 28.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.20% (Net Income -3.11b / Total Assets 102b)
RoE = -10.75% (Net Income TTM -3.11b / Total Stockholder Equity 28.9b)
RoCE = -14.24% (EBIT -5.08b / Capital Employed (Equity 28.9b + L.T.Debt 6.76b))
RoIC = -5.93% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -4.01b / Invested Capital 67.7b)
WACC = 5.71% (E(72.8b)/V(121b) * Re(8.97%) + D(48.0b)/V(121b) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.43 | Cagr: -45.65%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈4.91b ; Y1≈4.93b ; Y5≈5.22b
[DCF] Fair Price = 83.05 (EV 81.3b - Net Debt 16.3b = Equity 65.0b / Shares 782.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.26 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 97.64 | Revenue CAGR: 55.91% | SUE: -0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.90 | Chg30d=-309.09% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.54 | Chg30d=-64.67% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-636.5% | GrowthRev=+16.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=+14.26% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+198.6% | GrowthRev=+27.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)