(XPOF) Xponential Fitness - Overview
Stock: Pilates, Cycling, Stretching, Yoga, Barre, Boxing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 86.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -20.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.43 |
| Alpha | -69.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.181 |
| Beta Downside | 1.166 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 83.40% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.35 |
Description: XPOF Xponential Fitness December 29, 2025
Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) is a franchisor of boutique fitness concepts in North America, operating brands that span Pilates, indoor cycling, assisted stretching, yoga, barre, boxing, HIIT, and medically guided wellness. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Irvine, California, the company leverages a franchise model to scale its diversified portfolio, which includes Club Pilates, CycleBar, StretchLab, YogaSix, Pure Barre, Rumble, BFT and Lindora.
As of the most recent filing (Q2 2024), Xponential reported approximately 1,500 franchised locations and a revenue run-rate of $560 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase in same-store sales. EBITDA margin hovered around 18%, driven by higher royalty rates and ancillary product sales, though margin expansion is constrained by ongoing franchisee support investments.
The boutique fitness sector is benefiting from two macro trends: (1) sustained consumer spending on health-related services, which grew at a 4.5% CAGR in the U.S. discretionary category over the past five years, and (2) a shift toward hybrid (in-studio + digital) offerings that boost member retention. However, the industry remains sensitive to inflationary pressures on discretionary income and to potential oversupply of franchise locations in saturated metro markets.
For a deeper dive into Xponential’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the data visualizations on ValueRay useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: -49.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.86 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.90% < 20% (prev 0.44%; Δ 1.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 18.4m > Net Income -49.0m |
| Net Debt (333.6m) to EBITDA (74.1m): 4.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.7m) vs 12m ago 7.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 71.74% > 18% (prev 0.66%; Δ 7108 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.31% > 50% (prev 69.16%; Δ 7.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.23 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 74.1m / Interest Expense TTM 48.9m) |
Altman Z'' -6.77
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 99.2m - Total Current Liabilities 93.2m) / Total Assets 355.3m |
| B: -1.99 (Retained Earnings -707.6m / Total Assets 355.3m) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 59.9m / Avg Total Assets 413.7m) |
| D: -1.30 (Book Value of Equity -726.2m / Total Liabilities 559.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -6.77 = D |
Beneish M -3.69
| DSRI: 0.59 (Receivables 18.6m/32.4m, Revenue 315.7m/326.6m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 71.74% / 65.61%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.69) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 315.7m / 326.6m) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -49.0m - CFO 18.4m) / TA 355.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.69 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of XPOF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.68%, over one month by +4.14%, over three months by +35.71% and over the past year by -51.37%.
Is XPOF a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the XPOF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.9 | 27.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10.9 | 27.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.8 | -8.4% |
XPOF Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.2322
P/B = 430.1984
Revenue TTM = 315.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 59.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 74.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 348.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 375.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 333.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 721.9m USD (388.3m + Debt 375.1m - CCE 41.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.23 (Ebit TTM 59.9m / Interest Expense TTM 48.9m)
EV/FCF = 49.34x (Enterprise Value 721.9m / FCF TTM 14.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.03% (FCF TTM 14.6m / Enterprise Value 721.9m)
FCF Margin = 4.63% (FCF TTM 14.6m / Revenue TTM 315.7m)
Net Margin = -15.51% (Net Income TTM -49.0m / Revenue TTM 315.7m)
Gross Margin = 71.74% ((Revenue TTM 315.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 89.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.66% (prev 86.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.03 (Enterprise Value 721.9m / Total Assets 355.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.44% (Interest Expense 12.9m / Debt 375.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 47.4m (EBIT 59.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 99.2m / Total Current Liabilities 93.2m)
Debt / Equity = -3.30 (negative equity) (Debt 375.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -113.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.50 (Net Debt 333.6m / EBITDA 74.1m)
Debt / FCF = 22.80 (Net Debt 333.6m / FCF TTM 14.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -195.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.84% (Net Income -49.0m / Total Assets 355.3m)
RoE = 25.10% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -49.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -195.1m)
RoCE = 38.96% (EBIT 59.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -195.1m + L.T.Debt 348.9m))
RoIC = 35.45% (NOPAT 47.4m / Invested Capital 133.6m)
WACC = 6.56% (E(388.3m)/V(763.4m) * Re(10.27%) + D(375.1m)/V(763.4m) * Rd(3.44%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -5.55%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.54% ; FCFF base≈9.28m ; Y1≈9.20m ; Y5≈9.60m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 235.0m - Net Debt 333.6m = -98.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 28.77 | EPS CAGR: 4.98% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.21 | Revenue CAGR: 13.29% | SUE: 1.18 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=-0.061 | Revisions Net=-5 | Growth EPS=+74.0% | Growth Revenue=-0.9%