YPF Stock Analysis: YPF Sociedad Anonima | NYSE
Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 17.192m USD | 12M Return: 2.4% | US9842451000 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 57.7M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 89.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
YPF Sociedad Anónima is an Argentine integrated energy company that operates across the full oil and gas value chain, from exploration and production through refining, marketing, petrochemicals, and emerging new energies. Its business is organized into four segments: Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies, with operations primarily concentrated in Argentina and South America.
In addition to crude oil and natural gas production, YPF runs a downstream operation that produces refined products, petrochemicals, and a diversified set of specialty products such as agribusiness inputs, fertilizers, crop protection chemicals, flours, oils, grains, asphalts, naphtha, and petroleum coke. The company also handles natural gas transportation and commercialization, natural gas liquids fractionation (producing ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline), LNG liquefaction development, and power generation activities. It was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires.
As one of the largest integrated oil and gas producers in Latin America, YPF is the flagship state-influenced energy company of Argentina, with the Argentine government holding a controlling interest through energy reforms initiated in the 2010s. Its integrated model is characteristic of major energy players in the region, combining upstream resource development with refining capacity and a growing push into LNG and renewables to diversify beyond traditional hydrocarbons.
- Vaca Muerta shale output expansion drives upstream production growth
- Argentine peso depreciation pressures dollar-denominated debt servicing costs
- Government fuel price caps and regulatory intervention compress downstream margins
| Net Income: 3091b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 11.53 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.15k > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.87% < 20% (prev -16.81%; Δ 25.68% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 74.02 > 3% & CFO 2529b > Net Income 3091b |
| Net Debt (11222b) to EBITDA (9832b): 1.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (393.7m) vs 12m ago 1.28% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.76% > 18% (prev 25.45%; Δ 13.31% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 153.8% > 50% (prev 38.18%; Δ 115.6% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5183b / Interest Expense TTM 1110b) |
| A: 84.32 (Total Current Assets 14872b - Total Current Liabilities 11991b) / Total Assets 34.2b |
| B: 268.1 (Retained Earnings 9160b / Total Assets 34.2b) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 5183b / Avg Total Assets 21122b) |
| D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 20954b / Total Liabilities 30733b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.43k = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 4381b/3506b, Revenue 32485b/16118b) |
| GMI: 0.66 (GM 25.45% / 38.76%) |
| AQI: -12.9k (AQ_t -1.35k / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 2.02 (Revenue 32485b / 16118b) |
| TATA: 16.46 (NI 3091b - CFO 2529b) / TA 34.2b) |
| Beneish M = -7.62k (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 37.28 with a total of 1,036,012 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -13.14%, over one month by -23.88%, over three months by -25.23% and over the past year by +2.36%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 34.50 (which is 7.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
YPF Sociedad Anonima has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YPF.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 62.2 | 66.7% |
Market Cap ARS = 26567b (17.2b USD * 1545.25 USD.ARS)
P/E Trailing = 8.0755
P/E Forward = 5.0277
P/S = 0.8848
P/B = 1.3405
P/EG = 0.1007
Revenue TTM = 32485b ARS
EBIT TTM = 5183b ARS
EBITDA TTM = 9832b ARS
Long Term Debt = 8.67b ARS (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2899b ARS (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16792b ARS (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 766.0m
Net Debt = 11222b ARS (calculated: Debt 16792b - CCE 5570b)
Enterprise Value = 37789b ARS (26567b + Debt 16792b - CCE 5570b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.67 (Ebit TTM 5183b / Interest Expense TTM 1110b)
EV/FCF = 95.89x (Enterprise Value 37789b / FCF TTM 394b)
FCF Yield = 1.04% (FCF TTM 394b / Enterprise Value 37789b)
FCF Margin = 1.21% (FCF TTM 394b / Revenue TTM 32485b)
Net Margin = 9.52% (Net Income TTM 3091b / Revenue TTM 32485b)
Gross Margin = 38.76% ((Revenue TTM 32485b - Cost of Revenue TTM 19894b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.71% (prev 45.10%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11k (set to none) (Enterprise Value 37789b / Total Assets 34.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.61% (Interest Expense 1110b / Debt 16792b)
Taxrate = 0.04% (2.51b / 6754b)
NOPAT = 5181b (EBIT 5183b * (1 - 0.04%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 14872b / Total Current Liabilities 15392b)
Debt / Equity = 0.80 (Debt 16792b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 20954b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.14 (Net Debt 11222b / EBITDA 9832b)
Debt / FCF = 28.48 (Net Debt 11222b / FCF TTM 394b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17775b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.64% (Net Income 3091b / Total Assets 34.2b)
RoE = 17.39% (Net Income TTM 3091b / Total Stockholder Equity 17775b)
RoCE = 29.15% (EBIT 5183b / Capital Employed (Equity 17775b + L.T.Debt 8.67b))
RoIC = -48.51% (NOPAT 5181b / Invested Capital -10682b)
WACC = 6.86% (E(26567b)/V(43359b) * Re(7.02%) + D(16792b)/V(43359b) * Rd(6.61%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -21.20 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈737b ; Y1≈647b ; Y5≈522b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 8386b - Net Debt 11222b = -2836b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.06 | Revenue CAGR: 94.81% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=+4.90% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.58 | Chg30d=+28.53% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+525.7% | GrowthRev=+41.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.03 | Chg30d=+9.84% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-29.8% | GrowthRev=-12.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)