(YPF) YPF Sociedad Anonima - Ratings and Ratios
Crude, Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Lubricants
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 49.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 73.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.11% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.10 |
| Alpha | -27.82 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.502 |
| Beta | 1.190 |
| Beta Downside | 1.563 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.79% |
| Mean DD | 14.18% |
| Median DD | 11.29% |
Description: YPF YPF Sociedad Anonima October 31, 2025
YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE: YPF) is Argentina’s largest integrated energy firm, operating across the full oil-and-gas value chain. Upstream, it explores, develops and produces crude oil and natural gas; downstream, it runs refineries, petrochemical plants, and a nationwide retail network of service stations. Its gas-and-power segment handles natural-gas transport, regasification, processing, and power generation, while ancillary businesses supply diesel, fertilizers, lubricants and other specialty products.
Key recent metrics that shape YPF’s outlook include: • 2023 crude-oil production of roughly 500 k barrels per day, a modest rise from 2022 despite currency volatility. • Net profit of $1.2 bn (≈ ARS 130 bn) in 2023, driven by higher oil prices and a temporary lift in regulated gas tariffs. • Debt-to-EBITDA around 2.8×, indicating a relatively leveraged balance sheet but still within the range of regional peers. • Capital-expenditure guidance of $1.5 bn for 2024, focused on expanding the Vaca Muerta shale-oil development and modernising refinery capacity. Macro-drivers such as Argentina’s persistent peso inflation, government price-control policies on fuel, and the country’s reliance on energy imports make YPF’s cash-flow highly sensitive to fiscal and exchange-rate swings.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of YPF’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you may find the research tools on ValueRay useful as a next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income (-239.19b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 569.67b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -620.0pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -27.58% (prev -0.05%; Δ -27.53pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.88b > Net Income -239.19b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (14399.93b) to EBITDA (949.64b) ratio: 15.16 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (388.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.90% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 23.30% (prev 51.15%; Δ -27.84pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 46.51% (prev 7420 %; Δ -7373 pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.38 (EBITDA TTM 949.64b / Interest Expense TTM 513.25b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.32
| (A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 7729.08b - Total Current Liabilities 10347.75b) / Total Assets 40796.35b |
| (B) 0.00 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 6.91b / Total Assets 40796.35b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 194.75b / Avg Total Assets 20412.55b |
| (D) 0.65 = Book Value of Equity 16058.34b / Total Liabilities 24744.92b |
| Total Rating: 0.32 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.61
| 1. Piotroski 1.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.00% |
| 3. FCF Margin 0.01% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.97 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 15.16 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -5.40)% |
| 7. RoE -5.95% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -4.23% |
| 9. EPS Trend 12.21% |
What is the price of YPF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.80%, over one month by -3.32%, over three months by +16.09% and over the past year by -6.94%.
Is YPF a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the YPF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 43.4 | 21.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 43.4 | 21.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 54.1 | 51.2% |
YPF Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Forward = 7.6104
P/S = 0.0007
P/B = 1.2276
P/EG = -0.17
Beta = 0.279
Revenue TTM = 9494.45b ARS
EBIT TTM = 194.75b ARS
EBITDA TTM = 949.64b ARS
Long Term Debt = 7.96b ARS (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4089.43b ARS (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15502.31b ARS (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14399.93b ARS (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 35851.97b ARS (21751.43b + Debt 15502.31b - CCE 1401.78b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.38 (Ebit TTM 194.75b / Interest Expense TTM 513.25b)
FCF Yield = 0.00% (FCF TTM 1.00b / Enterprise Value 35851.97b)
FCF Margin = 0.01% (FCF TTM 1.00b / Revenue TTM 9494.45b)
Net Margin = -2.52% (Net Income TTM -239.19b / Revenue TTM 9494.45b)
Gross Margin = 23.30% ((Revenue TTM 9494.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7281.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.52% (prev 25.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 35851.97b / Total Assets 40796.35b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 257.0m / Debt 15502.31b)
Taxrate = 158.4% (out of range, set to none) (537.0m / 339.0m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 7729.08b / Total Current Liabilities 10347.75b)
Debt / Equity = 0.97 (Debt 15502.31b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16051.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.16 (Net Debt 14399.93b / EBITDA 949.64b)
Debt / FCF = 14.4k (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 14399.93b / FCF TTM 1.00b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4021.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.59% (Net Income -239.19b / Total Assets 40796.35b)
RoE = -5.95% (Net Income TTM -239.19b / Total Stockholder Equity 4021.61b)
RoCE = 4.83% (EBIT 194.75b / Capital Employed (Equity 4021.61b + L.T.Debt 7.96b))
RoIC = 0.67% (EBIT 194.75b / (Assets 40796.35b - Curr.Liab 10347.75b - Cash 1401.78b))
WACC = 6.07% (E(21751.43b)/V(37253.74b) * Re(10.40%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.19%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.70% ; FCFE base≈71.92b ; Y1≈60.61b ; Y5≈45.67b
Fair Price DCF = 1481 (DCF Value 581.12b / Shares Outstanding 392.4m; 5y FCF grow -19.04% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 12.21 | EPS CAGR: -6.95% | SUE: -0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.23 | Revenue CAGR: 30.94% | SUE: -3.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=+0.027 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.00 | Chg30d=-0.594 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+61.2% | Growth Revenue=-3.2%
Additional Sources for YPF Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle