YPF Stock Analysis: YPF Sociedad Anonima | NYSE
Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 17.775m USD | 12M Return: 49.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 78.7M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 91.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
YPF Sociedad Anónima is an Argentine integrated energy company that operates across the full oil and gas value chain, with activities spanning exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, refining and commercialization of refined products, petrochemicals, and emerging segments in LNG and new energies. The company is organized into four reporting segments: Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies. Beyond its core hydrocarbon operations, YPF produces fertilizers, crop protection products, grains, flours, oils, asphalts, naphtha, and petroleum coke, and operates in natural gas transportation, NGL fractionation, LNG liquefaction, and power generation.
Founded in 1977 and headquartered in Buenos Aires, YPF is listed on the NYSE under the ticker YPF and is classified within the GICS Integrated Oil & Gas sub-industry. As an integrated player, it benefits from vertical control over upstream production, midstream logistics, and downstream refining and marketing, while its diversification into agribusiness inputs and new energies reflects broader industry trends toward energy transition and non-fuel revenue streams.
- Vaca Muerta shale production scales, lifting upstream volumes
- Argentine peso weakness pressures dollar-denominated debt and capex
- Government fuel price caps continue compressing downstream margins
| Net Income: -610b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.54 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.53% < 20% (prev -13.31%; Δ 10.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 6317b > Net Income -610b |
| Net Debt (12601b) to EBITDA (6724b): 1.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (392.1m) vs 12m ago -1.98% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.94% > 18% (prev 26.99%; Δ 2.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 66.62% > 50% (prev 44.61%; Δ 22.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.00 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2587b / Interest Expense TTM 1295b) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 9338b - Total Current Liabilities 9964b) / Total Assets 42198b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -489b / Total Assets 42198b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 2587b / Avg Total Assets 37123b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 15799b / Total Liabilities 26025b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.97 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 3418b/2274b, Revenue 24733b/14297b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 26.99% / 29.94%) |
| AQI: 0.85 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.73 (Revenue 24733b / 14297b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -610b - CFO 6317b) / TA 42198b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 46.12 with a total of 1,147,520 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.74%, over one month by -13.86%, over three months by +5.10% and over the past year by +49.26%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 42.40 (which is 8.1% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
YPF Sociedad Anonima has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.08. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YPF.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 57.4 | 24.4% |
Market Cap ARS = 26454b (17.8b USD * 1488.25 USD.ARS)
P/E Forward = 8.1967
P/S = 0.0007
P/B = 1.5639
P/EG = 0.1007
Revenue TTM = 24733b ARS
EBIT TTM = 2587b ARS
EBITDA TTM = 6724b ARS
Long Term Debt = 8.53b ARS (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2640b ARS (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14953b ARS (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 640.0m
Net Debt = 12601b ARS (calculated: Debt 14953b - CCE 2352b)
Enterprise Value = 39055b ARS (26454b + Debt 14953b - CCE 2352b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.00 (Ebit TTM 2587b / Interest Expense TTM 1295b)
EV/FCF = 33.86x (Enterprise Value 39055b / FCF TTM 1153b)
FCF Yield = 2.95% (FCF TTM 1153b / Enterprise Value 39055b)
FCF Margin = 4.66% (FCF TTM 1153b / Revenue TTM 24733b)
Net Margin = -2.47% (Net Income TTM -610b / Revenue TTM 24733b)
Gross Margin = 29.94% ((Revenue TTM 24733b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17327b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.50% (prev 28.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 39055b / Total Assets 42198b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.66% (Interest Expense 1295b / Debt 14953b)
Taxrate = 0.10% (1.88b / 1972b)
NOPAT = 2584b (EBIT 2587b * (1 - 0.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.94 (Total Current Assets 9338b / Total Current Liabilities 9964b)
Debt / Equity = 0.95 (Debt 14953b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15799b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.87 (Net Debt 12601b / EBITDA 6724b)
Debt / FCF = 10.93 (Net Debt 12601b / FCF TTM 1153b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15546b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.64% (Net Income -610b / Total Assets 42198b)
RoE = -3.92% (Net Income TTM -610b / Total Stockholder Equity 15546b)
RoCE = 16.63% (EBIT 2587b / Capital Employed (Equity 15546b + L.T.Debt 8.53b))
RoIC = 7.68% (NOPAT 2584b / Invested Capital 33638b)
WACC = 8.37% (E(26454b)/V(41407b) * Re(8.21%) + D(14953b)/V(41407b) * Rd(8.66%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 6.67 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.90% ; FCFF base≈716b ; Y1≈821b ; Y5≈1208b
[DCF] Fair Price = 14.1k (EV 18117b - Net Debt 12601b = Equity 5515b / Shares 392.1m; r=8.37% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.66 | Revenue CAGR: 90.93% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.00 | Chg30d=+32.45% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.89 | Chg30d=+22.73% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.22 | Chg30d=+51.03% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+358.8% | GrowthRev=+14.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.58 | Chg30d=-1.27% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+6.9% | GrowthRev=-2.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=9, down=1)