(IMO) Imperial Oil - Overview
Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Fuels, Petrochemicals, Lubricants
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.65% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 11.55% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 25.94% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.78% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.85 |
| Alpha | 61.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.745 |
| Beta Downside | 1.008 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.95% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.38 |
Description: IMO Imperial Oil January 29, 2026
Imperial Oil Ltd (NYSE MKT: IMO) is a fully integrated Canadian energy company operating upstream, downstream and chemical businesses. The upstream arm extracts crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude and bitumen; the downstream segment refines, transports, blends and markets petroleum products under the Esso and Mobil brands; and the chemical division produces aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, polyethylene resins and refinery-grade propylene. The firm is a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil and has been in operation since 1880, with headquarters in Calgary.
Key recent metrics (as of Q3 2025): production averaged 281 kboe/d, a 3 % YoY increase driven by higher bitumen output in the Athabasca region; refining margins rose to US$ 16.2 per barrel, reflecting a narrowing Canadian differential and improved utilization at the Montreal refinery; and the company paid a quarterly dividend of C$ 0.38 per share, yielding roughly 5.3 % on current price. Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at C$ 5.6 billion, split roughly 60 % upstream and 40 % downstream, underscoring a balanced growth strategy.
Sector-wide, Canadian integrated producers are currently benefiting from OPEC+ supply discipline that supports global crude prices, while the domestic price spread (CDA) has tightened to its narrowest level since 2020, enhancing downstream profitability. For analysts seeking a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, a quick look at ValueRay’s proprietary model may surface additional insight worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 4.00b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.96% < 20% (prev 5.87%; Δ -0.91% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 6.58b > Net Income 4.00b |
| Net Debt (1.70b) to EBITDA (7.67b): 0.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (505.1m) vs 12m ago -5.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 13.95% > 18% (prev 0.15%; Δ 1380 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 126.0% > 50% (prev 115.9%; Δ 10.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 325.8 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 7.67b / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m) |
Altman Z'' 4.47
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 7.15b - Total Current Liabilities 4.86b) / Total Assets 30.85b |
| B: 0.53 (Retained Earnings 16.48b / Total Assets 30.85b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 5.22b / Avg Total Assets 36.69b) |
| D: 1.23 (Book Value of Equity 17.01b / Total Liabilities 13.84b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.47 = AA |
Beneish M -3.23
| DSRI: 0.71 (Receivables 3.70b/5.52b, Revenue 46.24b/49.28b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 13.95% / 14.58%) |
| AQI: 1.20 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 46.24b / 49.28b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 4.00b - CFO 6.58b) / TA 30.85b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.23 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of IMO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.29%, over one month by +28.62%, over three months by +24.66% and over the past year by +73.40%.
Is IMO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the IMO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 67.7 | -39.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 67.7 | -39.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 158 | 40.2% |
IMO Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/E Trailing = 17.4569
P/E Forward = 21.5517
P/S = 1.0433
P/B = 2.7992
P/EG = 0.85
Revenue TTM = 46.24b CAD
EBIT TTM = 5.22b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 7.67b CAD
Long Term Debt = 3.45b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.1m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.03b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.70b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 70.12b CAD (68.95b + Debt 3.03b - CCE 1.86b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 325.8 (Ebit TTM 5.22b / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.66x (Enterprise Value 70.12b / FCF TTM 4.78b)
FCF Yield = 6.82% (FCF TTM 4.78b / Enterprise Value 70.12b)
FCF Margin = 10.34% (FCF TTM 4.78b / Revenue TTM 46.24b)
Net Margin = 8.65% (Net Income TTM 4.00b / Revenue TTM 46.24b)
Gross Margin = 13.95% ((Revenue TTM 46.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 39.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.20% (prev 13.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.27 (Enterprise Value 70.12b / Total Assets 30.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.26% (Interest Expense 8.01m / Debt 3.03b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (162.2m / 702.0m)
NOPAT = 4.01b (EBIT 5.22b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.47 (Total Current Assets 7.15b / Total Current Liabilities 4.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.18 (Debt 3.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.22 (Net Debt 1.70b / EBITDA 7.67b)
Debt / FCF = 0.35 (Net Debt 1.70b / FCF TTM 4.78b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.90% (Net Income 4.00b / Total Assets 30.85b)
RoE = 17.79% (Net Income TTM 4.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.47b)
RoCE = 20.13% (EBIT 5.22b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.47b + L.T.Debt 3.45b))
RoIC = 14.53% (NOPAT 4.01b / Invested Capital 27.61b)
WACC = 8.30% (E(68.95b)/V(71.99b) * Re(8.66%) + D(3.03b)/V(71.99b) * Rd(0.26%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.98% ; FCFF base≈4.31b ; Y1≈4.60b ; Y5≈5.57b
Fair Price DCF = 185.3 (EV 91.32b - Net Debt 1.70b = Equity 89.62b / Shares 483.6m; r=8.30% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 7.74% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -31.01 | EPS CAGR: 3.21% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -47.79 | Revenue CAGR: -0.52% | SUE: -0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-0.379 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.74 | Chg30d=-0.707 | Revisions Net=-6 | Growth EPS=-21.0% | Growth Revenue=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.59 | Chg30d=-0.248 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+12.7% | Growth Revenue=+2.7%