(CARM) Carmila - Overview
Stock: Shopping Centers, Retail Properties, Commercial Real Estate, France, Spain
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.84% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 15.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.74% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 50.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.15% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.10 |
| Alpha | 1.81 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.033 |
| Beta Downside | 0.146 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 18.03% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.80 |
Description: CARM Carmila January 13, 2026
Carmila SA (Euronext: CARM) is the third-largest listed owner of commercial property in Europe, created by Carrefour together with large institutional investors to optimise the performance of shopping centres co-located with Carrefour hypermarkets in France, Spain and Italy. As of 31 December 2024 the portfolio was valued at €6.7 billion, comprising 251 assets that hold leading market positions within their respective catch-areas, and the company trades on Euronext-Paris Compartment A under the SIIC tax regime.
Key performance indicators that analysts typically monitor for Carmila include an occupancy rate of roughly 93 % (Q4 2024), an average rent of €320 per m² per year, and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×, indicating a moderate leverage profile for a REIT. The sector is currently driven by three macro-level forces: (1) the rebound in consumer footfall as post-pandemic spending recovers, (2) the pressure from e-commerce prompting tenants to adopt omnichannel concepts, and (3) the European Central Bank’s policy stance, where rising interest rates can compress REIT yields but also signal a tightening of financing conditions.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of Carmila’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform provides a granular analysis that may help refine your investment thesis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 404.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -10.75% < 20% (prev 50.42%; Δ -61.17% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 450.9m > Net Income 404.9m |
| Net Debt (2.68b) to EBITDA (773.3m): 3.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (141.2m) vs 12m ago -1.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.02% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 7326 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.80% > 50% (prev 7.23%; Δ 8.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.54 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 773.3m / Interest Expense TTM 102.1m) |
Altman Z'' 1.85
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 320.0m - Total Current Liabilities 434.3m) / Total Assets 6.73b |
| B: 0.17 (Retained Earnings 1.17b / Total Assets 6.73b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 769.1m / Avg Total Assets 6.73b) |
| D: 0.60 (Book Value of Equity 2.03b / Total Liabilities 3.38b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.85 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.30
| DSRI: 0.32 (Receivables 136.7m/194.9m, Revenue 1.06b/486.1m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 74.02% / 75.56%) |
| AQI: 0.02 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 2.19 (Revenue 1.06b / 486.1m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 404.9m - CFO 450.9m) / TA 6.73b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CARM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.18%, over one month by +1.93%, over three months by +2.80% and over the past year by +6.04%.
Is CARM a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the CARM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21 | 24.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.1 | 19% |
CARM Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 6.629
P/E Forward = 8.643
P/S = 4.0241
P/B = 0.6849
Revenue TTM = 1.06b EUR
EBIT TTM = 769.1m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 773.3m EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.58b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 215.6m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.79b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.68b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.07b EUR (2.29b + Debt 2.79b - CCE 14.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.54 (Ebit TTM 769.1m / Interest Expense TTM 102.1m)
EV/FCF = 10.47x (Enterprise Value 5.07b / FCF TTM 484.4m)
FCF Yield = 9.55% (FCF TTM 484.4m / Enterprise Value 5.07b)
FCF Margin = 45.56% (FCF TTM 484.4m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Net Margin = 38.07% (Net Income TTM 404.9m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Gross Margin = 74.02% ((Revenue TTM 1.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 276.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.76% (prev 77.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 5.07b / Total Assets 6.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.34% (Interest Expense 9.47m / Debt 2.79b)
Taxrate = 6.38% (8.40m / 131.7m)
NOPAT = 720.0m (EBIT 769.1m * (1 - 6.38%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 320.0m / Total Current Liabilities 434.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.83 (Debt 2.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.35b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.47 (Net Debt 2.68b / EBITDA 773.3m)
Debt / FCF = 5.53 (Net Debt 2.68b / FCF TTM 484.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.31b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.02% (Net Income 404.9m / Total Assets 6.73b)
RoE = 12.22% (Net Income TTM 404.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.31b)
RoCE = 13.05% (EBIT 769.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.31b + L.T.Debt 2.58b))
RoIC = 11.66% (NOPAT 720.0m / Invested Capital 6.18b)
WACC = 2.90% (E(2.29b)/V(5.09b) * Re(6.04%) + D(2.79b)/V(5.09b) * Rd(0.34%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 6.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.37%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈375.0m ; Y1≈246.2m ; Y5≈112.3m
Fair Price DCF = 6.43 (EV 3.58b - Net Debt 2.68b = Equity 897.7m / Shares 139.6m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 1.88 | EPS CAGR: -58.66% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.54 | Revenue CAGR: 15.21% | SUE: 1.30 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+3.5% | Growth Revenue=+9.2%