(GFC) Gecina - Overview
Stock: Office Space, Residential Units, Property Management, Asset Development
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.13% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.96% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.70% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 79.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.11% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.94 |
| Alpha | -15.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.155 |
| Beta Downside | -0.204 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.18 |
Description: GFC Gecina January 09, 2026
Gecina SA (PA:GFC) is a French SIIC that integrates ownership, management, and development across a prime real-estate portfolio valued at €17.0 bn (as of 30 June 2025). Its assets are concentrated in central Paris and the surrounding region, comprising roughly 1.2 million m² of office space and about 5,300 residential units, and are marketed under the “YouFirst” brand that emphasizes sustainable, user-centric environments.
Key market data that complement the company’s own reporting: as of Q4 2024, office occupancy in Gecina’s core assets averaged 96 %, supporting a stable rental income stream; the REIT’s FY 2024 dividend yield was approximately 5.5 % with a payout ratio near 95 %, reflecting the tax-efficient distribution model of French SIICs; and its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 40 %, indicating moderate leverage relative to peers. Sector-wide, the Paris office market continues to see limited vacancy (≈7 %) despite hybrid-work trends, while ESG-focused investors are increasingly allocating capital to firms with strong GRESB and MSCI scores-areas where Gecina consistently ranks highly.
If you want a concise, data-driven view of Gecina’s valuation and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform provides a useful one-page snapshot.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 598.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -77.40% < 20% (prev -43.72%; Δ -33.68% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 980.1m > Net Income 598.8m |
| Net Debt (6.11b) to EBITDA (846.1m): 7.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (74.3m) vs 12m ago 0.59% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.51% > 18% (prev 0.75%; Δ 7776 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.42% > 50% (prev 6.84%; Δ 0.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 846.1m / Interest Expense TTM 90.4m) |
Altman Z'' 1.00
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 1.23b - Total Current Liabilities 2.26b) / Total Assets 18.07b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 289.1m / Total Assets 18.07b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 829.3m / Avg Total Assets 17.86b) |
| D: 0.96 (Book Value of Equity 7.37b / Total Liabilities 7.65b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.00 = BB |
Beneish M -2.88
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 193.2m/151.0m, Revenue 1.33b/1.21b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 78.51% / 75.35%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.88 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 1.33b / 1.21b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 598.8m - CFO 980.1m) / TA 18.07b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of GFC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.74%, over one month by -0.82%, over three months by -1.50% and over the past year by -12.30%.
Is GFC a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the GFC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 102.1 | 29.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 81.9 | 3.9% |
GFC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 11.3047
P/E Forward = 11.5607
P/S = 6.6377
P/B = 0.5542
Revenue TTM = 1.33b EUR
EBIT TTM = 829.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 846.1m EUR
Long Term Debt = 5.22b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.57b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.84b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.11b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.85b EUR (5.74b + Debt 6.84b - CCE 727.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.18 (Ebit TTM 829.3m / Interest Expense TTM 90.4m)
EV/FCF = 102.8x (Enterprise Value 11.85b / FCF TTM 115.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.97% (FCF TTM 115.3m / Enterprise Value 11.85b)
FCF Margin = 8.70% (FCF TTM 115.3m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Net Margin = 45.18% (Net Income TTM 598.8m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Gross Margin = 78.51% ((Revenue TTM 1.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 284.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.37% (prev 82.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.66 (Enterprise Value 11.85b / Total Assets 18.07b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.32% (Interest Expense 90.4m / Debt 6.84b)
Taxrate = 0.19% (545.0k / 289.9m)
NOPAT = 827.7m (EBIT 829.3m * (1 - 0.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.55 (Total Current Assets 1.23b / Total Current Liabilities 2.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 6.84b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.22 (Net Debt 6.11b / EBITDA 846.1m)
Debt / FCF = 52.99 (Net Debt 6.11b / FCF TTM 115.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.35% (Net Income 598.8m / Total Assets 18.07b)
RoE = 5.74% (Net Income TTM 598.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 10.44b)
RoCE = 5.29% (EBIT 829.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 10.44b + L.T.Debt 5.22b))
RoIC = 4.83% (NOPAT 827.7m / Invested Capital 17.14b)
WACC = 3.16% (E(5.74b)/V(12.58b) * Re(5.35%) + D(6.84b)/V(12.58b) * Rd(1.32%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 5.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈170.1m ; Y1≈111.7m ; Y5≈51.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.62b - Net Debt 6.11b = -4.49b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 1.74 | EPS CAGR: -17.27% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 59.47 | Revenue CAGR: 10.13% | SUE: 1.08 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.76 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+1.1% | Growth Revenue=+1.3%