(HO) Thales S.A. - Overview
Stock: Defence, Aerospace, Cyber, Avionics, Navsat
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.55% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.47% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 18.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 72.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.44% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.30 |
| Alpha | 53.12 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.136 |
| Beta Downside | -0.209 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.55% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.24 |
Description: HO Thales S.A. January 29, 2026
Thales S.A. (HO) is a French multinational that designs, builds, and services high-tech systems across defence & security, aerospace & space, and digital identity markets. Its portfolio spans advanced air-defence and combat systems, C4ISR and mission-critical communications, cyber-defence, UAVs, naval warfare solutions, civil-aviation avionics, and secure-identity platforms for banking and IoT.
Recent financials (FY 2023) show revenue of €19.2 billion, an operating margin of roughly 6.5 % and an order backlog of €31 billion, indicating a strong pipeline but also reflecting the capital-intensive nature of its programmes. R&D intensity remains high at ~5 % of sales, underscoring the firm’s reliance on continuous technology refreshes.
Key economic drivers: (1) European defence budgets rose ~5 % YoY in 2024–2025, buoying demand for Thales’ air-defence and cyber-security contracts; (2) Global commercial aerospace spend is expanding at ~3 % CAGR, supporting its avionics and in-flight connectivity business; (3) The digital-identity market is projected to grow >10 % CAGR, feeding its banking-payment and secure-IoT solutions.
Given the blend of long-term government contracts and fast-growing commercial segments, analysts should monitor sovereign budget allocations, aircraft fleet-renewal cycles, and regulatory developments in data-privacy that could affect the digital-identity line.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 2.08b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -11.12% < 20% (prev 0.99%; Δ -12.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 4.47b > Net Income 2.08b |
| Net Debt (3.48b) to EBITDA (4.79b): 0.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (205.9m) vs 12m ago -1.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.07% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2581 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 109.5% > 50% (prev 75.69%; Δ 33.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.84 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 4.79b / Interest Expense TTM 405.5m) |
Altman Z'' 0.23
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 21.03b - Total Current Liabilities 25.54b) / Total Assets 38.89b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 4.15b / Total Assets 38.89b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 2.77b / Avg Total Assets 37.04b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 4.10b / Total Liabilities 31.72b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.23 = B |
Beneish M -2.73
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 10.49b/8.97b, Revenue 40.55b/26.64b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 26.07% / 25.98%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.52 (Revenue 40.55b / 26.64b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.08b - CFO 4.47b) / TA 38.89b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.73 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of HO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.48%, over one month by -0.32%, over three months by +4.06% and over the past year by +61.42%.
Is HO a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 285.7 | 15.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 306.5 | 24% |
HO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 50.6903
P/E Forward = 20.6612
P/S = 2.4736
P/B = 7.3663
P/EG = 2.0088
Revenue TTM = 40.55b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.77b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.79b EUR
Long Term Debt = 4.03b EUR (estimated: total debt 7.31b - short term 3.28b)
Short Term Debt = 3.28b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.31b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.48b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 56.24b EUR (52.81b + Debt 7.31b - CCE 3.89b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.84 (Ebit TTM 2.77b / Interest Expense TTM 405.5m)
EV/FCF = 17.49x (Enterprise Value 56.24b / FCF TTM 3.22b)
FCF Yield = 5.72% (FCF TTM 3.22b / Enterprise Value 56.24b)
FCF Margin = 7.93% (FCF TTM 3.22b / Revenue TTM 40.55b)
Net Margin = 5.12% (Net Income TTM 2.08b / Revenue TTM 40.55b)
Gross Margin = 26.07% ((Revenue TTM 40.55b - Cost of Revenue TTM 29.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.39% (prev 25.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 56.24b / Total Assets 38.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 116.2m / Debt 7.31b)
Taxrate = 24.19% (204.9m / 846.9m)
NOPAT = 2.10b (EBIT 2.77b * (1 - 24.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 21.03b / Total Current Liabilities 25.54b)
Debt / Equity = 1.02 (Debt 7.31b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.14b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.73 (Net Debt 3.48b / EBITDA 4.79b)
Debt / FCF = 1.08 (Net Debt 3.48b / FCF TTM 3.22b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.60% (Net Income 2.08b / Total Assets 38.89b)
RoE = 28.86% (Net Income TTM 2.08b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.19b)
RoCE = 24.71% (EBIT 2.77b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.19b + L.T.Debt 4.03b))
RoIC = 29.23% (NOPAT 2.10b / Invested Capital 7.19b)
WACC = 4.91% (E(52.81b)/V(60.12b) * Re(5.42%) + D(7.31b)/V(60.12b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.62%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.70% ; FCFF base≈3.00b ; Y1≈3.11b ; Y5≈3.55b
Fair Price DCF = 495.6 (EV 105.31b - Net Debt 3.48b = Equity 101.83b / Shares 205.5m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.96% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -3.36 | EPS CAGR: -57.45% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 25.89 | Revenue CAGR: 3.58% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.86 | Chg30d=-0.027 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+15.7% | Growth Revenue=+7.6%