(HFG) HelloFresh SE - Overview
Stock: Meal Kits, Add-Ons, Ready-To-Eat, Seasonal Boxes, Pet Food
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 67.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.96 |
| Alpha | -54.96 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.300 |
| Beta Downside | 0.669 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 86.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.40 |
Description: HFG HelloFresh SE January 16, 2026
HelloFresh SE (XETRA:HFG) is a Berlin-based meal-kit company that delivers curated, ready-to-cook recipes and a growing portfolio of add-on products-including soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal kits-direct to consumers’ doors.
The firm operates in 18 markets across North America, Europe, and Oceania under the HelloFresh brand and a suite of subsidiaries such as Chefs Plate, Good Chop, The Pets Table, EveryPlate, Factor, Green Chef, and YouFoodz, giving it a diversified brand architecture that targets both premium and value-oriented segments.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show revenue of roughly €7.1 billion, a subscriber base of about 7.9 million active customers, and an average order value near €55. The company’s contribution margin hovers around 30%, while annual churn remains low at approximately 5%, reflecting strong customer stickiness. Macro-level drivers include discretionary-spending trends, inflationary pressure on food prices, and the continued shift toward e-commerce grocery solutions, all of which can materially affect growth and profitability.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation, you might explore the HelloFresh profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -187.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.63% < 20% (prev -3.65%; Δ 1.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 350.0m > Net Income -187.9m |
| Net Debt (-142.8m) to EBITDA (339.1m): -0.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (155.3m) vs 12m ago -5.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.27% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 8367 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 302.8% > 50% (prev 316.2%; Δ -13.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.86 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 339.1m / Interest Expense TTM 76.5m) |
Altman Z'' -0.63
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 684.3m - Total Current Liabilities 869.0m) / Total Assets 2.20b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 17.0m / Total Assets 2.20b) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -142.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.32b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 463.4m / Total Liabilities 1.56b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.63 = B |
Beneish M -3.27
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 20.0m/17.4m, Revenue 7.02b/7.71b) |
| GMI: 0.71 (GM 84.27% / 59.80%) |
| AQI: 1.20 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 7.02b / 7.71b) |
| TATA: -0.24 (NI -187.9m - CFO 350.0m) / TA 2.20b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of HFG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.03%, over one month by +6.84%, over three months by +1.71% and over the past year by -45.16%.
Is HFG a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.4 | 55.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.1 | -33% |
HFG Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 0.1135
P/B = 1.1297
Revenue TTM = 7.02b EUR
EBIT TTM = -142.6m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 339.1m EUR
Long Term Debt = 178.5m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.5m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 178.5m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -142.8m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 653.9m EUR (796.7m + Debt 178.5m - CCE 321.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.86 (Ebit TTM -142.6m / Interest Expense TTM 76.5m)
EV/FCF = 2.68x (Enterprise Value 653.9m / FCF TTM 243.8m)
FCF Yield = 37.28% (FCF TTM 243.8m / Enterprise Value 653.9m)
FCF Margin = 3.47% (FCF TTM 243.8m / Revenue TTM 7.02b)
Net Margin = -2.68% (Net Income TTM -187.9m / Revenue TTM 7.02b)
Gross Margin = 84.27% ((Revenue TTM 7.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.51% (prev 26.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.30 (Enterprise Value 653.9m / Total Assets 2.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.80% (Interest Expense 15.7m / Debt 178.5m)
Taxrate = 25.0% (EU avg default 25%)
NOPAT = -107.0m (EBIT -142.6m * (1 - 25.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.79 (Total Current Assets 684.3m / Total Current Liabilities 869.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.28 (Debt 178.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 638.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.42 (Net Debt -142.8m / EBITDA 339.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.59 (Net Debt -142.8m / FCF TTM 243.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 751.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.10% (Net Income -187.9m / Total Assets 2.20b)
RoE = -25.00% (Net Income TTM -187.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 751.6m)
RoCE = -15.33% (EBIT -142.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 751.6m + L.T.Debt 178.5m))
RoIC = -10.06% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -107.0m / Invested Capital 1.06b)
WACC = 6.94% (E(796.7m)/V(975.2m) * Re(7.02%) + D(178.5m)/V(975.2m) * Rd(8.80%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.73%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.31% ; FCFF base≈171.7m ; Y1≈112.7m ; Y5≈51.4m
Fair Price DCF = 9.66 (EV 1.24b - Net Debt -142.8m = Equity 1.39b / Shares 143.3m; r=6.94% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -60.11 | EPS CAGR: -21.67% | SUE: -1.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -18.31 | Revenue CAGR: 0.03% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=-0.043 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+209.3% | Growth Revenue=-2.2%