(SFQ) SAF Holland - Overview
Stock: Axle Systems, Fifth Wheels, Landing Gears, Coupling Systems, Air Suspension
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.24% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.44% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 34.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 51.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 71.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.77% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.57 |
| Alpha | 12.12 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.355 |
| Beta Downside | 0.557 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.65% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.71 |
Description: SFQ SAF Holland December 25, 2025
SAF-Holland SE (XETRA: SFQ) is a German Tier-1 supplier that designs, manufactures, and sells chassis-related assemblies for trucks, trailers, semi-trailers, and buses, covering axles, air-suspension, fifth-wheel couplings, kingpins, rims, landing gears, braking (including EBS) and lighting systems. The product portfolio is sold under multiple brands (SAF, Holland, Haldex, Neway, KLL, V.Orlandi, TrailerMaster, Assali Stefen, Tecma, York) and is primarily sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas and the Asia-Pacific.
Key quantitative points (FY 2023): revenue of €1.63 bn, EBIT margin of ~6 % and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.2×, indicating moderate leverage. The company’s performance is closely tied to commercial-vehicle production cycles, which are currently driven by a rebound in freight volumes post-COVID-19 and tightening EU emissions standards that push OEMs toward higher-spec suspension and braking solutions. A notable sector driver is the ongoing shift toward electric and autonomous trucks, which could raise demand for advanced braking and electronic control systems where SAF-Holland has a growing product line.
If you want a data-rich, model-based view of SAF-Holland’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at ValueRay’s analytics could be a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 55.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.40 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.75% < 20% (prev 25.14%; Δ 3.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 162.6m > Net Income 55.7m |
| Net Debt (547.0m) to EBITDA (222.3m): 2.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.12 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (44.9m) vs 12m ago -1.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 22.47% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 2225 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 100.5% > 50% (prev 117.3%; Δ -16.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.89 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 222.3m / Interest Expense TTM 69.1m) |
Altman Z'' 3.02
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 942.2m - Total Current Liabilities 444.0m) / Total Assets 1.77b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 250.3m / Total Assets 1.77b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 130.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.73b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 253.1m / Total Liabilities 1.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.02 = A |
Beneish M -3.13
| DSRI: 1.12 (Receivables 221.0m/223.6m, Revenue 1.73b/1.97b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 22.47% / 21.89%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 0.88 (Revenue 1.73b / 1.97b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 55.7m - CFO 162.6m) / TA 1.77b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SFQ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.24%, over one month by +14.16%, over three months by +35.55% and over the past year by +20.01%.
Is SFQ a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the SFQ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 18.9 | 2.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22 | 19.7% |
SFQ Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Trailing = 13.8049
P/S = 0.4448
P/B = 1.6153
Revenue TTM = 1.73b EUR
EBIT TTM = 130.8m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 222.3m EUR
Long Term Debt = 637.0m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 160.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 890.6m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 547.0m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.30b EUR (770.8m + Debt 890.6m - CCE 359.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.89 (Ebit TTM 130.8m / Interest Expense TTM 69.1m)
EV/FCF = 12.39x (Enterprise Value 1.30b / FCF TTM 105.1m)
FCF Yield = 8.07% (FCF TTM 105.1m / Enterprise Value 1.30b)
FCF Margin = 6.07% (FCF TTM 105.1m / Revenue TTM 1.73b)
Net Margin = 3.22% (Net Income TTM 55.7m / Revenue TTM 1.73b)
Gross Margin = 22.47% ((Revenue TTM 1.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.63% (prev 22.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 1.30b / Total Assets 1.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.15% (Interest Expense 10.3m / Debt 890.6m)
Taxrate = 33.94% (7.15m / 21.1m)
NOPAT = 86.4m (EBIT 130.8m * (1 - 33.94%))
Current Ratio = 2.12 (Total Current Assets 942.2m / Total Current Liabilities 444.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 890.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 477.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.46 (Net Debt 547.0m / EBITDA 222.3m)
Debt / FCF = 5.20 (Net Debt 547.0m / FCF TTM 105.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 500.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.23% (Net Income 55.7m / Total Assets 1.77b)
RoE = 11.14% (Net Income TTM 55.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 500.2m)
RoCE = 11.50% (EBIT 130.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 500.2m + L.T.Debt 637.0m))
RoIC = 7.17% (NOPAT 86.4m / Invested Capital 1.20b)
WACC = 3.76% (E(770.8m)/V(1.66b) * Re(7.22%) + D(890.6m)/V(1.66b) * Rd(1.15%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 7.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.51% ; FCFF base≈112.3m ; Y1≈127.5m ; Y5≈174.0m
Fair Price DCF = 100.8 (EV 5.12b - Net Debt 547.0m = Equity 4.57b / Shares 45.4m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.80% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 41.81 | EPS CAGR: 98.12% | SUE: 1.68 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 40.90 | Revenue CAGR: 7.17% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.16 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+20.8% | Growth Revenue=+5.3%