(TNIE) Tonies SE - Overview
Stock: Speaker, Figurines, Headphones, Carrying Cases
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.29 |
| Alpha | 58.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.067 |
| Beta Downside | 0.259 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.30% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.68 |
Description: TNIE Tonies SE January 26, 2026
Tonies SE (XETRA: TNIE) designs, manufactures and sells a cloud-based, interactive audio ecosystem for children, anchored by the Toniebox speaker and a line-up of licensed figurines. The product suite is complemented by accessories such as headphones and portable cases, and is sold through a multichannel mix of brick-and-mortar partners, the company’s own e-shop, Amazon Marketplace, and other online retailers. The firm, originally listed as 468 SPAC I SE, was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, operating primarily in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and other international markets.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue €215 million, up 14 % YoY, driven by a 22 % increase in Toniebox unit sales and a 9 % rise in recurring digital subscription revenue. Gross margin improved to 48 % from 44 % in 2022, reflecting higher mix of digital content and cost efficiencies in production. The company’s active user base (children with at least one active Tonie) reached ~3.2 million, a 15 % increase year-over-year, underscoring strong brand penetration in its core markets.
Sector drivers include robust growth in the children’s entertainment and “smart-toy” segment (CAGR ≈ 9 % globally, according to IDC) and rising consumer willingness to spend on connected, educational devices post-pandemic. However, exposure to discretionary spending cycles and potential supply-chain constraints on electronic components remain material risks; a sustained slowdown in consumer confidence in Europe or the U.S. could pressure sales.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of Tonies SE’s valuation dynamics, consider exploring the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 41.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.78% < 20% (prev 13.19%; Δ -1.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 73.5m > Net Income 41.5m |
| Net Debt (-25.2m) to EBITDA (29.2m): -0.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.2m) vs 12m ago 0.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.84% > 18% (prev 0.52%; Δ 5232 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 154.3% > 50% (prev 122.2%; Δ 32.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.77 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 29.2m / Interest Expense TTM 1.46m) |
Altman Z'' -2.53
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 222.4m - Total Current Liabilities 132.2m) / Total Assets 507.9m |
| B: -0.58 (Retained Earnings -295.4m / Total Assets 507.9m) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 1.12m / Avg Total Assets 496.1m) |
| D: -1.73 (Book Value of Equity -293.3m / Total Liabilities 170.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.53 = D |
Beneish M -2.80
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 39.1m/26.6m, Revenue 765.6m/591.9m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 52.84% / 51.93%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.55) |
| SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 765.6m / 591.9m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 41.5m - CFO 73.5m) / TA 507.9m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TNIE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.00%, over one month by +5.97%, over three months by +31.42% and over the past year by +61.76%.
Is TNIE a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the TNIE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12 | 9.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12.1 | 10.1% |
TNIE Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Trailing = 44.9565
P/E Forward = 30.2115
P/S = 2.4664
P/B = 3.7037
Revenue TTM = 765.6m EUR
EBIT TTM = 1.12m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 29.2m EUR
Long Term Debt = 8.39m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 928.0k EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.9m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -25.2m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.23b EUR (1.26b + Debt 13.9m - CCE 39.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.77 (Ebit TTM 1.12m / Interest Expense TTM 1.46m)
EV/FCF = 18.29x (Enterprise Value 1.23b / FCF TTM 67.5m)
FCF Yield = 5.47% (FCF TTM 67.5m / Enterprise Value 1.23b)
FCF Margin = 8.81% (FCF TTM 67.5m / Revenue TTM 765.6m)
Net Margin = 5.42% (Net Income TTM 41.5m / Revenue TTM 765.6m)
Gross Margin = 52.84% ((Revenue TTM 765.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 361.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.85% (prev 59.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.43 (Enterprise Value 1.23b / Total Assets 507.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.51% (Interest Expense 1.46m / Debt 13.9m)
Taxrate = 25.0% (EU avg default 25%)
NOPAT = 838.1k (EBIT 1.12m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 222.4m / Total Current Liabilities 132.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 13.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 337.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.86 (Net Debt -25.2m / EBITDA 29.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.37 (Net Debt -25.2m / FCF TTM 67.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 342.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.36% (Net Income 41.5m / Total Assets 507.9m)
RoE = 12.12% (Net Income TTM 41.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 342.2m)
RoCE = 0.32% (EBIT 1.12m / Capital Employed (Equity 342.2m + L.T.Debt 8.39m))
RoIC = 0.24% (NOPAT 838.1k / Invested Capital 354.2m)
WACC = 5.69% (E(1.26b)/V(1.27b) * Re(5.67%) + D(13.9m)/V(1.27b) * Rd(10.51%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.55%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.38% ; FCFF base≈48.2m ; Y1≈48.4m ; Y5≈51.7m
Fair Price DCF = 13.72 (EV 1.54b - Net Debt -25.2m = Equity 1.57b / Shares 114.2m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 47.93 | EPS CAGR: 1.49% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.85 | Revenue CAGR: 134.2% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+82.3% | Growth Revenue=+23.9%