APP Stock Analysis: Applovin | NASDAQ

Advertising Agencies | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 101.653m USD | 12M Return: -24.7% | US03831W1080 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Axon Ads, MAX, Adjust, Wurl
Total Rating 50
Safety 86
Buy Signal -0.56
Advertising Agencies
Industry Rotation: -7.4
Market Cap: 102B
Avg Turnover: 2.58B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility97.5%
VaR 5th Pctl15.8%
VaR vs Median-1.37%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Rel. Str. IBD1.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group1.1
Character TTM
Beta3.587
Beta Downside3.553
Hurst Exponent0.487
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD58.59%
CAGR/Max DD1.69
CAGR/Mean DD5.59
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of APP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.04, "2021-09": 0.4, "2021-12": 0.5, "2022-03": 0.06, "2022-06": -0.06, "2022-09": 0.06, "2022-12": -0.22, "2023-03": 0.21, "2023-06": 0.41, "2023-09": 0.3, "2023-12": 0.49, "2024-03": 0.92, "2024-06": 1.17, "2024-09": 1.47, "2024-12": 2.07, "2025-03": 2.38, "2025-06": 2.36, "2025-09": 2.45, "2025-12": 3.48, "2026-03": 3.76, "2026-06": 3.76,
EPS CAGR: 171.26%
EPS Trend: 96.2%
Last SUE: 0.23
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of APP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 668.806, 2021-09: 726.951, 2021-12: 793.47, 2022-03: 625.421, 2022-06: 776.231, 2022-09: 713.099, 2022-12: 702.307, 2023-03: 715.405, 2023-06: 750.165, 2023-09: 864.256, 2023-12: 953.261, 2024-03: 1058.115, 2024-06: 711.015, 2024-09: 835.186, 2024-12: 1372.779, 2025-03: 1158.974, 2025-06: 1258.754, 2025-09: 1405.045, 2025-12: 1657.944, 2026-03: 1842.449, 2026-06: 1923.686,
Rev. CAGR: 32.57%
Rev. Trend: 97.6%
Last SUE: -0.04
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 5.3 years of data

Jan -2.1% 18
Feb +6.1% 0
Mar +0.7% 0
Apr -2.7% 10
May +34.1% 54
Jun -3.6% 43
Jul -1.1% 9
Aug +12.7% 24
Sep +7.2% 0
Oct -9.4% 24
Nov -4.0% 22
Dec -8.2% 22

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: APP Applovin

AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) is a U.S.-headquartered technology company that provides end-to-end, AI-powered advertising and monetization solutions for the digital advertising sector. Founded in 2011 and based in Palo Alto, California, it operates through two segments: Advertising and Apps, with its stock listed on NASDAQ since its 2021 IPO.

The companys product suite includes Axon Ads Manager for campaign automation, MAX (an in-app bidding platform that runs real-time auctions to optimize publisher ad inventory), Adjust for mobile measurement and analytics, and Wurl, a connected TV (CTV) platform for streaming video distribution and advertising. It serves a broad customer base ranging from individual developers and small studios to large enterprises, advertisers, and mobile app publishers across the U.S. and international markets.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • AXON AI platform drives advertising segment revenue growth
  • Apps segment wind-down reorients toward higher-margin ad tech
  • Aggressive share buybacks boost earnings per share
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5
Net Income: 4.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.54 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.63 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 60.60% < 20% (prev 41.05%; Δ 19.55% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.55 > 3% & CFO 4.53b > Net Income 4.41b
Net Debt (493.5m) to EBITDA (5.42b): 0.09 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.30 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (337.9m) vs 12m ago -1.26% < -2%
Gross Margin: 88.46% > 18% (prev 83.83%; Δ 4.64% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 95.99% > 50% (prev 77.62%; Δ 18.37% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 25.79 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.29b / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m)
Altman Z'' 9.98
A: 0.50 (Total Current Assets 5.39b - Total Current Liabilities 1.25b) / Total Assets 8.27b
B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 2.66b / Total Assets 8.27b)
C: 0.74 (EBIT TTM 5.29b / Avg Total Assets 7.11b)
D: 0.62 (Book Value of Equity 3.16b / Total Liabilities 5.11b)
Altman-Z'' = 9.98 = AAA
Beneish M -2.97
DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 2.17b/1.58b, Revenue 6.83b/4.63b)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 83.83% / 88.46%)
AQI: 0.70 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.48)
SGI: 1.48 (Revenue 6.83b / 4.63b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 4.41b - CFO 4.53b) / TA 8.27b)
Beneish M = -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of APP shares?

As of August 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 310.79 with a total of 4,387,283 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.31%, over one month by -26.80%, over three months by -34.83% and over the past year by -24.68%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 282.70 (which is 9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is APP a buy, sell or hold?

Applovin has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.27. Therefore, it is recommended to buy APP.

  • StrongBuy: 16
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the APP price?
Analysts Target Price 559 79.9%
Applovin (APP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 102b (102b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.5165
P/E Forward = 19.9203
P/S = 14.8853
P/B = 33.7167
P/EG = 0.8811
Revenue TTM = 6.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.29b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.42b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.52b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 31.8m
Net Debt = 493.5m USD (calculated: Debt 3.55b - CCE 3.05b)
Enterprise Value = 102b USD (102b + Debt 3.55b - CCE 3.05b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 25.79 (Ebit TTM 5.29b / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m)
EV/FCF = 22.70x (Enterprise Value 102b / FCF TTM 4.50b)
FCF Yield = 4.40% (FCF TTM 4.50b / Enterprise Value 102b)
FCF Margin = 65.88% (FCF TTM 4.50b / Revenue TTM 6.83b)
Net Margin = 64.58% (Net Income TTM 4.41b / Revenue TTM 6.83b)
Gross Margin = 88.46% ((Revenue TTM 6.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 787.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.26% (prev 88.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 12.35 (Enterprise Value 102b / Total Assets 8.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.78% (Interest Expense 205.0m / Debt 3.55b)
Taxrate = 15.38% (801.3m / 5.21b)
NOPAT = 4.48b (EBIT 5.29b * (1 - 15.38%))
Current Ratio = 4.30 (Total Current Assets 5.39b / Total Current Liabilities 1.25b)
Debt / Equity = 1.12 (Debt 3.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.16b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.09 (Net Debt 493.5m / EBITDA 5.42b)
Debt / FCF = 0.11 (Net Debt 493.5m / FCF TTM 4.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 61.99% (Net Income 4.41b / Total Assets 8.27b)
RoE = 193.1% (Net Income TTM 4.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.28b)
RoCE = 91.20% (EBIT 5.29b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.28b + L.T.Debt 3.52b))
RoIC = 66.92% (NOPAT 4.48b / Invested Capital 6.69b)
WACC = 18.14% (E(102b)/V(105b) * Re(18.60%) + D(3.55b)/V(105b) * Rd(5.78%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 18.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.37 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 52.58% ; FCFF base≈3.84b ; Y1≈4.40b ; Y5≈6.48b
[DCF] Fair Price = 113.6 (EV 35.1b - Net Debt 493.5m = Equity 34.6b / Shares 304.4m; r=18.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.20 | EPS CAGR: 171.3% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.64 | Revenue CAGR: 32.57% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.04 | Chg30d=-1.18% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.73 | Chg30d=-2.12% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+61.4% | GrowthRev=+48.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=20.54 | Chg30d=-2.60% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+30.5% | GrowthRev=+28.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=3, down=6)