(APP) Applovin - Overview
Stock: Software, Monetization, Analytics, Exchange, Gaming
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 142% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.16 |
| Alpha | -40.94 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.175 |
| Beta Downside | 2.242 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.00% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.66 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: APP Applovin February 11, 2026
AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ: APP) operates a software platform that helps advertisers and app publishers monetize and acquire users across mobile and connected-TV (CTV) environments. The business is split into an Advertising segment-offering solutions such as AppDiscovery, the MAX in-app bidding engine, the Adjust analytics suite, and the Wurl CTV distribution network-and an Apps segment that runs free-to-play games and provides end-to-end tools (SparkLabs, AppLovin Exchange, Array) for developers and mobile operators.
**Recent performance highlights (Q4 2024 / FY 2024):**
• Revenue reached **$3.53 billion**, up 11.9 % YoY, driven primarily by growth in the MAX bidding platform (+18 % YoY) and Adjust (+14 % YoY).
• Adjusted EBITDA margin held at **22.4 %**, reflecting continued scalability of the auction-based model.
• Monthly active users (MAU) across the company’s ad-served inventory topped **300 million**, a 6 % increase YoY, indicating expanding reach in both mobile and CTV.
These figures are taken from the company’s FY 2024 Form 10-K and the accompanying earnings release; later quarters may deviate as macro-economic conditions evolve.
**Key economic and sector drivers:**
• Global digital ad spend is projected to grow ~7 % CAGR through 2027, but the U.S. market faces a near-term slowdown as advertisers trim budgets amid higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.
• Mobile gaming revenue, a core source of inventory for AppLovin’s ad network, is expected to rise ~5 % YoY in 2025, supported by continued growth in emerging markets and the expansion of CTV ad formats.
• The shift toward in-app bidding (e.g., MAX) is gaining traction industry-wide, with base-rate adoption estimated at 35 % of mobile inventory in 2024, improving yield for publishers and creating a defensible moat for AppLovin.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst dashboards for APP to see how these trends translate into forward-looking valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 3.33b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.55 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 19.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 53.34% < 20% (prev 31.55%; Δ 21.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.55 > 3% & CFO 3.97b > Net Income 3.33b |
| Net Debt (1.06b) to EBITDA (4.15b): 0.25 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.9m) vs 12m ago -1.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 86.48% > 18% (prev 0.78%; Δ 8570 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 88.44% > 50% (prev 67.76%; Δ 20.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.10 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 4.15b / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m) |
Altman Z'' 7.97
| A: 0.43 (Total Current Assets 4.43b - Total Current Liabilities 1.33b) / Total Assets 7.26b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 1.74b / Total Assets 7.26b) |
| C: 0.60 (EBIT TTM 3.95b / Avg Total Assets 6.56b) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 1.69b / Total Liabilities 5.12b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.97 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.18
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 1.82b/1.41b, Revenue 5.81b/3.98b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 86.48% / 78.44%) |
| AQI: 0.65 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.57) |
| SGI: 1.46 (Revenue 5.81b / 3.98b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 3.33b - CFO 3.97b) / TA 7.26b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of APP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.29%, over one month by -27.15%, over three months by -22.27% and over the past year by -16.63%.
Is APP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 16
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the APP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 667.6 | 62% |
| Analysts Target Price | 667.6 | 62% |
APP Fundamental Data Overview February 18, 2026
P/E Forward = 26.178
P/S = 23.2331
P/B = 61.8308
P/EG = 1.1322
Revenue TTM = 5.81b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.95b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.51b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 13.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.06b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 128.39b USD (127.33b + Debt 3.54b - CCE 2.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.10 (Ebit TTM 3.95b / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m)
EV/FCF = 32.33x (Enterprise Value 128.39b / FCF TTM 3.97b)
FCF Yield = 3.09% (FCF TTM 3.97b / Enterprise Value 128.39b)
FCF Margin = 68.40% (FCF TTM 3.97b / Revenue TTM 5.81b)
Net Margin = 57.42% (Net Income TTM 3.33b / Revenue TTM 5.81b)
Gross Margin = 86.48% ((Revenue TTM 5.81b - Cost of Revenue TTM 784.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.93% (prev 87.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 17.69 (Enterprise Value 128.39b / Total Assets 7.26b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.45% (Interest Expense 51.3m / Debt 3.54b)
Taxrate = 12.06% (151.1m / 1.25b)
NOPAT = 3.48b (EBIT 3.95b * (1 - 12.06%))
Current Ratio = 3.32 (Total Current Assets 4.43b / Total Current Liabilities 1.33b)
Debt / Equity = 1.66 (Debt 3.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.25 (Net Debt 1.06b / EBITDA 4.15b)
Debt / FCF = 0.27 (Net Debt 1.06b / FCF TTM 3.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 50.79% (Net Income 3.33b / Total Assets 7.26b)
RoE = 249.2% (Net Income TTM 3.33b / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 81.54% (EBIT 3.95b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.34b + L.T.Debt 3.51b))
RoIC = 74.79% (NOPAT 3.48b / Invested Capital 4.65b)
WACC = 13.59% (E(127.33b)/V(130.88b) * Re(13.93%) + D(3.54b)/V(130.88b) * Rd(1.45%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 13.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.10%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.23% ; FCFF base≈3.22b ; Y1≈3.97b ; Y5≈6.76b
Fair Price DCF = 168.0 (EV 52.79b - Net Debt 1.06b = Equity 51.73b / Shares 308.0m; r=13.59% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 98.03 | EPS CAGR: 200.9% | SUE: 2.04 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.84 | Revenue CAGR: 29.69% | SUE: -1.46 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.44 | Chg30d=+0.283 | Revisions Net=+7 | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.72 | Chg30d=+1.148 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+61.2% | Growth Revenue=+46.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=20.21 | Chg30d=+1.067 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+28.6% | Growth Revenue=+27.3%