(HPK) Highpeak Energy Acquisition - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US43114Q1058
Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids
Total Rating 19
Risk 37
Buy Signal -0.65
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.82% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.14% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 6.37% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 36.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 73.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.12 |
| Alpha | -89.15 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.698 |
| Beta Downside | 2.541 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 86.03% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.51 |
Description: HPK Highpeak Energy Acquisition January 18, 2026
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) is an independent upstream firm focused on exploring, developing, and producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. Founded in 2019 and based in Fort Worth, Texas, the company trades as a common stock in the U.S. oil-and-gas E&P sub-industry.
Key operational metrics that typically drive valuation in this segment include daily barrel-per-day (bpd) oil output (HPK reported ≈ 5,000 bpd in Q4 2023), the company’s all-in cash net-back per barrel (estimated ≈ $12 – $14 per barrel at current price levels), and its capital efficiency measured by dollars of capital expenditure per barrel of production (≈ $8 k/boe). The Permian’s high-density drilling footprint and ongoing infrastructure upgrades keep breakeven costs low (often < $30 per barrel), while macro drivers such as WTI crude price trends, OPEC + output policy, and U.S. macro-economic growth remain the primary determinants of HPK’s cash flow outlook.
For a deeper, data-driven view of HPK’s valuation dynamics, you might find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 53.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.19% < 20% (prev -0.96%; Δ 12.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 558.0m > Net Income 53.2m |
| Net Debt (-134.9m) to EBITDA (630.6m): -0.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (124.8m) vs 12m ago -3.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.48% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 3112 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.14% > 50% (prev 37.10%; Δ -8.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.44 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 630.6m / Interest Expense TTM 148.9m) |
Altman Z'' 1.44
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 251.3m - Total Current Liabilities 152.7m) / Total Assets 3.20b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 463.3m / Total Assets 3.20b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Avg Total Assets 3.13b) |
| D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 463.3m / Total Liabilities 1.58b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.44 = BB |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 54.6m/76.4m, Revenue 881.5m/1.14b) |
| GMI: 1.15 (GM 31.48% / 36.20%) |
| AQI: 186.2 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.78 (Revenue 881.5m / 1.14b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 53.2m - CFO 558.0m) / TA 3.20b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 106.6 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of HPK shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.79 with a total of 741,133 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.27%, over one month by +7.88%, over three months by -8.13% and over the past year by -64.39%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.27%, over one month by +7.88%, over three months by -8.13% and over the past year by -64.39%.
Is HPK a buy, sell or hold?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold HPK.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HPK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.5 | 77.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.5 | 77.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.9 | -19.2% |
HPK Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 11.6667
P/E Forward = 10.6045
P/S = 0.651
P/B = 0.3529
Revenue TTM = 881.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 213.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 630.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.16b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 30.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -134.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 439.0m USD (573.9m + Debt 30.0m - CCE 164.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.44 (Ebit TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 148.9m)
EV/FCF = 10.56x (Enterprise Value 439.0m / FCF TTM 41.6m)
FCF Yield = 9.47% (FCF TTM 41.6m / Enterprise Value 439.0m)
FCF Margin = 4.72% (FCF TTM 41.6m / Revenue TTM 881.5m)
Net Margin = 6.03% (Net Income TTM 53.2m / Revenue TTM 881.5m)
Gross Margin = 31.48% ((Revenue TTM 881.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 604.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.77% (prev 26.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.14 (Enterprise Value 439.0m / Total Assets 3.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 120.1% (Interest Expense 36.0m / Debt 30.0m)
Taxrate = 27.38% (35.9m / 130.9m)
NOPAT = 155.3m (EBIT 213.8m * (1 - 27.38%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 251.3m / Total Current Liabilities 152.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 30.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.63b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.21 (Net Debt -134.9m / EBITDA 630.6m)
Debt / FCF = -3.25 (Net Debt -134.9m / FCF TTM 41.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.63b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.70% (Net Income 53.2m / Total Assets 3.20b)
RoE = 3.26% (Net Income TTM 53.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.63b)
RoCE = 7.66% (EBIT 213.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.63b + L.T.Debt 1.16b))
RoIC = 5.89% (NOPAT 155.3m / Invested Capital 2.63b)
WACC = 11.57% (E(573.9m)/V(603.9m) * Re(12.17%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 12.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.06% ; FCFF base≈71.0m ; Y1≈46.6m ; Y5≈21.3m
Fair Price DCF = 3.15 (EV 260.8m - Net Debt -134.9m = Equity 395.7m / Shares 125.6m; r=11.57% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -43.79 | EPS CAGR: 66.48% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 50.33 | Revenue CAGR: 18.90% | SUE: -0.93 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.915 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-66.2% | Growth Revenue=-8.6%
P/E Forward = 10.6045
P/S = 0.651
P/B = 0.3529
Revenue TTM = 881.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 213.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 630.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.16b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 30.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -134.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 439.0m USD (573.9m + Debt 30.0m - CCE 164.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.44 (Ebit TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 148.9m)
EV/FCF = 10.56x (Enterprise Value 439.0m / FCF TTM 41.6m)
FCF Yield = 9.47% (FCF TTM 41.6m / Enterprise Value 439.0m)
FCF Margin = 4.72% (FCF TTM 41.6m / Revenue TTM 881.5m)
Net Margin = 6.03% (Net Income TTM 53.2m / Revenue TTM 881.5m)
Gross Margin = 31.48% ((Revenue TTM 881.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 604.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.77% (prev 26.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.14 (Enterprise Value 439.0m / Total Assets 3.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 120.1% (Interest Expense 36.0m / Debt 30.0m)
Taxrate = 27.38% (35.9m / 130.9m)
NOPAT = 155.3m (EBIT 213.8m * (1 - 27.38%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 251.3m / Total Current Liabilities 152.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 30.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.63b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.21 (Net Debt -134.9m / EBITDA 630.6m)
Debt / FCF = -3.25 (Net Debt -134.9m / FCF TTM 41.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.63b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.70% (Net Income 53.2m / Total Assets 3.20b)
RoE = 3.26% (Net Income TTM 53.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.63b)
RoCE = 7.66% (EBIT 213.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.63b + L.T.Debt 1.16b))
RoIC = 5.89% (NOPAT 155.3m / Invested Capital 2.63b)
WACC = 11.57% (E(573.9m)/V(603.9m) * Re(12.17%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 12.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.06% ; FCFF base≈71.0m ; Y1≈46.6m ; Y5≈21.3m
Fair Price DCF = 3.15 (EV 260.8m - Net Debt -134.9m = Equity 395.7m / Shares 125.6m; r=11.57% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -43.79 | EPS CAGR: 66.48% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 50.33 | Revenue CAGR: 18.90% | SUE: -0.93 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.915 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-66.2% | Growth Revenue=-8.6%