(MSTR) MicroStrategy - Overview
Stock: Bitcoin Exposure, Analytics Software, Intelligence Layer
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 79.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.19% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.88 |
| Alpha | -85.65 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.005 |
| Beta Downside | 1.354 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 69.78% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.01 |
Description: MSTR MicroStrategy January 27, 2026
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy Inc., ticker MSTR) is a publicly-traded U.S. company that combines two distinct business lines: a large-scale Bitcoin treasury and an AI-enabled enterprise-analytics software platform. The firm operates globally across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and other regions, and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.
On the Bitcoin side, the company holds roughly 130,000 BTC as of 31 Dec 2025, valued at about $3.2 billion using the average spot price for the month (≈ $24,600 /BTC). This asset accounts for roughly 70 % of Strategy Inc.’s total market capitalization, making the stock’s equity value highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements and to regulatory developments in key jurisdictions. The exposure is disclosed in the company’s Form 10-K and corroborated by Bloomberg’s crypto holdings tracker; however, exact timing of future purchases or sales remains discretionary and therefore uncertain.
Its software division, branded as Strategy One and Strategy Mosaic, delivers AI-powered analytics and a “universal intelligence layer” that abstracts data governance across heterogeneous sources. FY 2025 revenue reached $1.11 billion, a 12 % year-over-year increase, with SaaS subscription revenue growing 18 % and contributing roughly 35 % of total ARR. The division’s churn rate was 6 % and its net dollar retention stood at 112 %, indicating modest but sustainable expansion. These figures come from the company’s earnings release and are consistent with third-party estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Within the GICS Application-Software sub-industry, Strategy Inc. benefits from broader macro trends: corporate spending on AI-driven analytics is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22 % through 2028 (IDC), while higher-for-longer interest rates increase the relative attractiveness of fixed-income securities that the company also issues. Nevertheless, the firm’s dual-exposure model introduces correlation risk-Bitcoin’s volatility can dominate earnings variance, especially during market stress, which may outweigh the incremental upside from software growth.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, you may find it useful to explore the granular analytics available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 7.92b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.51 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -23.19% < 20% (prev -21.84%; Δ -1.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 > 3% & CFO -62.9m > Net Income 7.92b |
| Net Debt (8.17b) to EBITDA (11.00b): 0.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (304.0m) vs 12m ago 54.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.12% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 6939 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.16% > 50% (prev 5.60%; Δ -4.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 156.0 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 11.00b / Interest Expense TTM 70.4m) |
Altman Z'' 3.91
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 214.0m - Total Current Liabilities 324.1m) / Total Assets 73.62b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 18.95b / Total Assets 73.62b) |
| C: 0.27 (EBIT TTM 10.98b / Avg Total Assets 40.98b) |
| D: 1.22 (Book Value of Equity 18.94b / Total Liabilities 15.50b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.91 = AA |
Beneish M -2.81
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 113.4m/107.2m, Revenue 474.9m/467.2m) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 70.12% / 73.56%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 1.00 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 474.9m / 467.2m) |
| TATA: 0.11 (NI 7.92b - CFO -62.9m) / TA 73.62b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MSTR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.05%, over one month by -7.85%, over three months by -48.00% and over the past year by -58.04%.
Is MSTR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MSTR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 475.5 | 232.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 475.5 | 232.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 170.2 | 18.8% |
MSTR Fundamental Data Overview January 24, 2026
P/E Forward = 2.3787
P/S = 98.0724
P/B = 0.8901
P/EG = 3.09
Revenue TTM = 474.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 10.98b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 316.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.22b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.17b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 54.75b USD (46.58b + Debt 8.22b - CCE 54.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 156.0 (Ebit TTM 10.98b / Interest Expense TTM 70.4m)
EV/FCF = -1.46x (Enterprise Value 54.75b / FCF TTM -37.56b)
FCF Yield = -68.60% (FCF TTM -37.56b / Enterprise Value 54.75b)
FCF Margin = -7907 % (FCF TTM -37.56b / Revenue TTM 474.9m)
Net Margin = 1667 % (Net Income TTM 7.92b / Revenue TTM 474.9m)
Gross Margin = 70.12% ((Revenue TTM 474.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 141.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.46% (prev 68.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 54.75b / Total Assets 73.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.23% (Interest Expense 18.9m / Debt 8.22b)
Taxrate = 28.06% (1.09b / 3.87b)
NOPAT = 7.90b (EBIT 10.98b * (1 - 28.06%))
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 214.0m / Total Current Liabilities 324.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 8.22b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 58.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.74 (Net Debt 8.17b / EBITDA 11.00b)
Debt / FCF = -0.22 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 8.17b / FCF TTM -37.56b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 40.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.32% (Net Income 7.92b / Total Assets 73.62b)
RoE = 19.76% (Net Income TTM 7.92b / Total Stockholder Equity 40.06b)
RoCE = 22.76% (EBIT 10.98b / Capital Employed (Equity 40.06b + L.T.Debt 8.17b))
RoIC = 17.36% (NOPAT 7.90b / Invested Capital 45.48b)
WACC = 11.33% (E(46.58b)/V(54.80b) * Re(13.30%) + D(8.22b)/V(54.80b) * Rd(0.23%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 13.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 28.62%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -37.56b)
EPS Correlation: 24.05 | EPS CAGR: 13.02% | SUE: -2.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -49.47 | Revenue CAGR: -1.17% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.88 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=40.72 | Chg30d=+2.515 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+637.4% | Growth Revenue=+2.8%