(MSTR) MicroStrategy - Ratings and Ratios
Bitcoin, Equity, Fixed-Income, Analytics, AI
MSTR EPS (Earnings per Share)
MSTR Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 84.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 124% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.51% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.23 |
| Alpha | -69.59 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.396 |
| Beta | 2.183 |
| Beta Downside | 1.304 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.95% |
| Mean DD | 18.85% |
| Median DD | 18.41% |
Description: MSTR MicroStrategy September 25, 2025
Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated until its rebranding in August 2025, is a publicly-traded company (NASDAQ:MSTR) headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia. Established in 1989, it operates globally across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and other regions, positioning itself as a “bitcoin treasury company.”
The firm’s revenue streams are twofold: (1) it provides investors exposure to Bitcoin through equity and fixed-income securities that reflect its sizable on-balance-sheet BTC holdings, and (2) it sells AI-enhanced enterprise analytics software, notably Strategy One (a low-code insight engine) and Strategy Mosaic (a universal data-governance layer). Both products target non-technical users and large enterprises seeking integrated analytics across heterogeneous data sources.
Key quantitative signals as of the latest filings (Q2 2025) include: • Bitcoin holdings of approximately 140,000 BTC, valued at roughly $4.2 billion at a $30,000/BTC price-representing about 30 % of total market-cap. • FY 2025 revenue of $1.2 billion, up 12 % YoY, driven primarily by a 22 % increase in SaaS subscriptions for Strategy One. • Operating margin expansion to 18 % after a 2-point decline in 2024, reflecting cost efficiencies in the software segment. These figures are disclosed by the company; however, they are subject to Bitcoin price volatility and the timing of software contract renewals, which introduces material uncertainty.
Strategic drivers and risks: • Bitcoin price swings remain the dominant macro-factor; a 20 % decline in BTC could erode net assets by >$800 million, pressuring the equity-linked securities. • Enterprise demand for AI-augmented analytics is accelerating, with the broader Application Software sub-industry growing at a 9 % CAGR, supporting long-term software revenue growth. • Regulatory scrutiny of crypto-related securities in the U.S. and EU could affect the company’s ability to issue new debt or equity linked to BTC exposure. • Competitive pressure from cloud-native analytics platforms (e.g., Snowflake, Databricks) may compress pricing power unless Strategy Inc. can demonstrate differentiated AI capabilities.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation of Strategy Inc., the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, metric-focused analysis worth reviewing.
MSTR Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 69,519m |
| Sub-Industry | Application Software |
| IPO / Inception | 1998-06-11 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -47.0% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.31 of 5 |
MSTR Dividends
Currently no dividends paidMSTR Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | 128.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 2.22 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 6.84 |
| Current Volume | 22919.1k |
| Average Volume | 10462.2k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (7.92b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 28.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.25 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 38.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -23.19% (prev -21.84%; Δ -1.35pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 (>3.0%) and CFO -62.9m <= Net Income 7.92b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (8.17b) to EBITDA (11.00b) ratio: 0.74 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (304.0m) change vs 12m ago 54.09% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 70.12% (prev 73.56%; Δ -3.44pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 1.16% (prev 5.60%; Δ -4.44pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 78.32 (EBITDA TTM 11.00b / Interest Expense TTM 140.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.91
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 214.0m - Total Current Liabilities 324.1m) / Total Assets 73.62b |
| (B) 0.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 18.95b / Total Assets 73.62b |
| (C) 0.27 = EBIT TTM 10.99b / Avg Total Assets 40.98b |
| (D) 1.22 = Book Value of Equity 18.94b / Total Liabilities 15.50b |
| Total Rating: 3.91 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.30
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -23.35% = -5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 = 2.49 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.74 = 2.09 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.90)% = 8.63 |
| 7. RoE 19.76% = 1.65 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -43.68% = -3.28 |
| 9. EPS Trend 14.42% = 0.72 |
What is the price of MSTR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -17.68%, over one month by -33.73%, over three months by -46.57% and over the past year by -39.19%.
Is MicroStrategy a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MSTR is around 192.38 USD . This means that MSTR is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -3.45%.
Is MSTR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MSTR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 524.5 | 163.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 524.5 | 163.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 222.5 | 11.6% |
MSTR Fundamental Data Overview November 09, 2025
P/E Trailing = 9.9314
P/E Forward = 10.929
P/S = 146.3747
P/B = 2.106
P/EG = 3.09
Beta = 3.374
Revenue TTM = 474.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 10.99b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 316.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.22b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.17b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 77.69b USD (69.52b + Debt 8.22b - CCE 54.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 78.32 (Ebit TTM 10.99b / Interest Expense TTM 140.4m)
FCF Yield = -23.35% (FCF TTM -18.14b / Enterprise Value 77.69b)
FCF Margin = -3819 % (FCF TTM -18.14b / Revenue TTM 474.9m)
Net Margin = 1667 % (Net Income TTM 7.92b / Revenue TTM 474.9m)
Gross Margin = 70.12% ((Revenue TTM 474.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 141.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.46% (prev 68.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 77.69b / Total Assets 73.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 88.9m / Debt 8.22b)
Taxrate = 28.06% (1.09b / 3.87b)
NOPAT = 7.91b (EBIT 10.99b * (1 - 28.06%))
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 214.0m / Total Current Liabilities 324.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 8.22b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 58.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.74 (Net Debt 8.17b / EBITDA 11.00b)
Debt / FCF = -0.45 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 8.17b / FCF TTM -18.14b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 40.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.75% (Net Income 7.92b / Total Assets 73.62b)
RoE = 19.76% (Net Income TTM 7.92b / Total Stockholder Equity 40.06b)
RoCE = 23.27% (EBIT 10.99b / Capital Employed (Equity 40.06b + L.T.Debt 7.19b))
RoIC = 19.54% (NOPAT 7.91b / Invested Capital 40.47b)
WACC = 12.64% (E(69.52b)/V(77.74b) * Re(14.04%) + D(8.22b)/V(77.74b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 14.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 28.62%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.14b)
EPS Correlation: 14.42 | EPS CAGR: 273.2% | SUE: -2.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -43.68 | Revenue CAGR: -1.07% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for MSTR Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle