(MCY) Mercury General - Overview
Stock: Auto, Homeowners, Commercial Auto, Property, Umbrella
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.81% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -15.83% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 18.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.44% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.21 |
| Alpha | 80.85 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.603 |
| Beta Downside | 0.780 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.99% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.03 |
Description: MCY Mercury General January 11, 2026
Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) writes personal automobile insurance across the United States and also offers homeowners, commercial auto, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella policies. Its auto line covers collision, property damage, bodily injury, comprehensive, PIP, and under-/uninsured motorist coverages, while its homeowners products include dwelling, liability, and personal-property coverages. Distribution is through independent agents, agency networks, and direct online portals in 12 states, with the firm headquartered in Los Angeles and incorporated in 1961.
Key operating metrics that analysts watch include MCY’s combined ratio, which has hovered around 95 % in the last twelve months-indicating underwriting profitability-and a return on equity (ROE) of roughly 10 % that outperforms the broader P&C median of 7-8 %. The company’s earnings are sensitive to three macro drivers: (1) U.S. auto-loan delinquencies, which affect claim frequency; (2) regional catastrophe exposure, especially in Florida and California, where hurricane and wildfire risk can inflate loss reserves; and (3) interest-rate movements, because MCY invests a sizable portion of premiums in fixed-income assets, so higher yields can boost investment income but also increase policy-holder surrender pressure.
For a deeper, data-rich look at MCY’s valuation and risk profile, you might explore the analytics platform ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 439.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.37% < 20% (prev 29.28%; Δ 4.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 1.05b > Net Income 439.6m |
| Net Debt (-678.1m) to EBITDA (640.7m): -1.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 24.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.4m) vs 12m ago 0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.02% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 1583 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 66.45% > 50% (prev 67.27%; Δ -0.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.50 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 640.7m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m) |
Altman Z'' 2.86
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 2.02b - Total Current Liabilities 81.8m) / Total Assets 9.37b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 2.13b / Total Assets 9.37b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 567.4m / Avg Total Assets 8.76b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 2.23b / Total Liabilities 7.14b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.86 = A |
Beneish M -2.98
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 772.2m/811.2m, Revenue 5.82b/5.48b) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 16.02% / 18.94%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.77 / AQ_t-1 0.78) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 5.82b / 5.48b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 439.6m - CFO 1.05b) / TA 9.37b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MCY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.68%, over one month by +7.88%, over three months by +16.50% and over the past year by +89.88%.
Is MCY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MCY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 100 | 5.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 100 | 5.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 128 | 34.5% |
MCY Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/S = 0.8343
P/B = 2.1626
P/EG = 1.19
Revenue TTM = 5.82b USD
EBIT TTM = 567.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 640.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 574.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.64m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 574.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -678.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.17b USD (4.85b + Debt 574.4m - CCE 1.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.50 (Ebit TTM 567.4m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m)
EV/FCF = 4.21x (Enterprise Value 4.17b / FCF TTM 990.9m)
FCF Yield = 23.74% (FCF TTM 990.9m / Enterprise Value 4.17b)
FCF Margin = 17.02% (FCF TTM 990.9m / Revenue TTM 5.82b)
Net Margin = 7.55% (Net Income TTM 439.6m / Revenue TTM 5.82b)
Gross Margin = 16.02% ((Revenue TTM 5.82b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.89b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.40% (prev 20.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.45 (Enterprise Value 4.17b / Total Assets 9.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.25% (Interest Expense 7.18m / Debt 574.4m)
Taxrate = 19.96% (69.9m / 350.3m)
NOPAT = 454.1m (EBIT 567.4m * (1 - 19.96%))
Current Ratio = 24.74 (Total Current Assets 2.02b / Total Current Liabilities 81.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 574.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.23b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.06 (Net Debt -678.1m / EBITDA 640.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.68 (Net Debt -678.1m / FCF TTM 990.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.02% (Net Income 439.6m / Total Assets 9.37b)
RoE = 22.07% (Net Income TTM 439.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.99b)
RoCE = 22.11% (EBIT 567.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.99b + L.T.Debt 574.4m))
RoIC = 17.69% (NOPAT 454.1m / Invested Capital 2.57b)
WACC = 7.38% (E(4.85b)/V(5.43b) * Re(8.14%) + D(574.4m)/V(5.43b) * Rd(1.25%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 8.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.87% ; FCFF base≈982.7m ; Y1≈1.10b ; Y5≈1.47b
Fair Price DCF = 533.4 (EV 28.86b - Net Debt -678.1m = Equity 29.54b / Shares 55.4m; r=7.38% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.18% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 59.34 | EPS CAGR: 32.60% | SUE: 2.94 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 88.50 | Revenue CAGR: 11.63% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.10 | Chg30d=+0.250 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.40 | Chg30d=+1.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+23.5% | Growth Revenue=+7.0%