(PGR) Progressive - Overview
Stock: Auto, Motorcycle, Homeowners, Renters, Commercial
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.52% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.69% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -6.46% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 76.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 24.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.65 |
| Alpha | -20.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.275 |
| Beta Downside | 0.336 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 29.97% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.57 |
Description: PGR Progressive January 27, 2026
Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) is a U.S. property-and-casualty insurer that writes personal auto, specialty lines (motorcycles, RVs, watercraft), homeowners and renters policies, as well as commercial auto, small-business liability/property, and workers’ compensation for the transportation sector. Distribution occurs through independent agencies, online platforms, and phone sales, and the company also provides specialty reinsurance and manages an investment portfolio.
According to its Q4 2024 earnings release, Progressive posted net written premiums of $13.5 billion, a combined ratio of 90.2% (better than the industry median of ~92%), and a return on equity of 12.4%, indicating solid underwriting profitability and capital efficiency. The firm’s investment income rose to $1.1 billion, driven by a 5.2% average yield on its fixed-income holdings-a direct benefit of the higher interest-rate environment that has been a primary sector driver since 2023. Moreover, Progressive’s average personal-auto rate increase in 2024 was 7.1%, outpacing the 5.5% sector average, reflecting tightening pricing cycles in auto insurance.
For a more granular view of Progressive’s risk-adjusted earnings and exposure to emerging trends such as autonomous-vehicle insurance, you may find ValueRay’s detailed breakdown useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 10.50b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.19 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 136.3% < 20% (prev -23.08%; Δ 159.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 17.39b > Net Income 10.50b |
| Net Debt (6.72b) to EBITDA (9.61b): 0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (588.2m) vs 12m ago 0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 54.64% > 18% (prev 0.72%; Δ 5392 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 81.66% > 50% (prev 71.62%; Δ 10.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 51.03 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 9.61b / Interest Expense TTM 185.0m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 1.20 (Total Current Assets 109.21b - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 91.06b |
| B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 32.44b / Total Assets 91.06b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 9.44b / Avg Total Assets 98.13b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 33.21b / Total Liabilities 86.49b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 10.08 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.70
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 16.39b/20.02b, Revenue 80.13b/75.35b) |
| GMI: 1.32 (GM 54.64% / 71.99%) |
| AQI: -0.25 (AQ_t -0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 80.13b / 75.35b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 10.50b - CFO 17.39b) / TA 91.06b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.70 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of PGR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.37%, over one month by -5.10%, over three months by -1.10% and over the past year by -13.74%.
Is PGR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 242.6 | 19.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 242.6 | 19.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 224.7 | 11.1% |
PGR Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.6422
P/S = 1.3531
P/B = 3.91
P/EG = 3.8312
Revenue TTM = 80.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 9.44b USD
EBITDA TTM = 9.61b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 6.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.72b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 32.65b USD (118.58b + Debt 6.90b - CCE 92.83b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 51.03 (Ebit TTM 9.44b / Interest Expense TTM 185.0m)
EV/FCF = 1.92x (Enterprise Value 32.65b / FCF TTM 17.05b)
FCF Yield = 52.21% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Enterprise Value 32.65b)
FCF Margin = 21.27% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Revenue TTM 80.13b)
Net Margin = 13.10% (Net Income TTM 10.50b / Revenue TTM 80.13b)
Gross Margin = 54.64% ((Revenue TTM 80.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 36.35b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 53.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.36 (Enterprise Value 32.65b / Total Assets 91.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 46.0m / Debt 6.90b)
Taxrate = 19.85% (731.0m / 3.68b)
NOPAT = 7.57b (EBIT 9.44b * (1 - 19.85%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 109.21b / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 1.51 (Debt 6.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.70 (Net Debt 6.72b / EBITDA 9.61b)
Debt / FCF = 0.39 (Net Debt 6.72b / FCF TTM 17.05b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.93b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.70% (Net Income 10.50b / Total Assets 91.06b)
RoE = 45.78% (Net Income TTM 10.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.93b)
RoCE = 31.65% (EBIT 9.44b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.93b + L.T.Debt 6.90b))
RoIC = 20.15% (NOPAT 7.57b / Invested Capital 37.54b)
WACC = 6.58% (E(118.58b)/V(125.48b) * Re(6.93%) + D(6.90b)/V(125.48b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.04% ; FCFF base≈15.95b ; Y1≈19.67b ; Y5≈33.50b
Fair Price DCF = 1340 (EV 792.03b - Net Debt 6.72b = Equity 785.31b / Shares 586.1m; r=6.58% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 85.99 | EPS CAGR: 47.03% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.98 | Revenue CAGR: 19.02% | SUE: -1.32 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.34 | Chg30d=-0.077 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.96 | Chg30d=-0.148 | Revisions Net=-9 | Growth EPS=-12.5% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.20 | Chg30d=-0.076 | Revisions Net=-13 | Growth EPS=+1.5% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%